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Parteipolitikverflechtung: Der Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlentscheidungen von 1976 bis 2002

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  • Burkhart, Simone

Abstract

Untersuchungen über den Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlentscheidungen betrachteten in der Vergangenheit im Vertrauen auf die Existenz eines autonomen "Wahlzyklus" den Zeitpunkt einer Landtagswahl als erklärende Variable für das Abschneiden der Parteien der Bundesregierung bei Landtagswahlen. Dieses Papier untersucht die Erklärungskraft des Wahlzyklus für Deutschland vor und nach 1990 und findet für die Zeit nach der Wiedervereinigung wenig Evidenz für einen Einfluss von Zeitvariablen auf Landtagswahlergebnisse. Dies bedeutet jedoch nicht, dass der Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlergebnisse zurückgegangen ist, wie einige aktuelle Untersuchungen behaupten. Regressionsanalysen zeigen, dass der Kausalmechanismus, der früheren Analysen teilweise implizit zugrunde lag, auch weiterhin gilt: Je stärker die Popularität der Bundesregierung seit Amtsantritt gesunken ist, mit desto höheren Verlusten müssen die Parteien der Bundesregierung bei Landtagswahlen rechnen. Der Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlen hat seit der Wiedervereinigung sogar eher zu- als abgenommen.

Suggested Citation

  • Burkhart, Simone, 2004. "Parteipolitikverflechtung: Der Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlentscheidungen von 1976 bis 2002," MPIfG Discussion Paper 04/1, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:041
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    Cited by:

    1. Manow, Philip & Burkhart, Simone, 2004. "Legislative Autolimitation under Divided Government: Evidence from the German Case, 1976-2002," MPIfG Discussion Paper 04/11, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.

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