IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/mpifgd/041.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Parteipolitikverflechtung: Der Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlentscheidungen von 1976 bis 2002

Author

Listed:
  • Burkhart, Simone

Abstract

Untersuchungen über den Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlentscheidungen betrachteten in der Vergangenheit im Vertrauen auf die Existenz eines autonomen "Wahlzyklus" den Zeitpunkt einer Landtagswahl als erklärende Variable für das Abschneiden der Parteien der Bundesregierung bei Landtagswahlen. Dieses Papier untersucht die Erklärungskraft des Wahlzyklus für Deutschland vor und nach 1990 und findet für die Zeit nach der Wiedervereinigung wenig Evidenz für einen Einfluss von Zeitvariablen auf Landtagswahlergebnisse. Dies bedeutet jedoch nicht, dass der Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlergebnisse zurückgegangen ist, wie einige aktuelle Untersuchungen behaupten. Regressionsanalysen zeigen, dass der Kausalmechanismus, der früheren Analysen teilweise implizit zugrunde lag, auch weiterhin gilt: Je stärker die Popularität der Bundesregierung seit Amtsantritt gesunken ist, mit desto höheren Verlusten müssen die Parteien der Bundesregierung bei Landtagswahlen rechnen. Der Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlen hat seit der Wiedervereinigung sogar eher zu- als abgenommen.

Suggested Citation

  • Burkhart, Simone, 2004. "Parteipolitikverflechtung: Der Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlentscheidungen von 1976 bis 2002," MPIfG Discussion Paper 04/1, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19903/1/dp04-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "A Politico-Economic Model of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(350), pages 243-253, June.
    2. Mann, Thomas E. & Wolfinger, Raymond E., 1980. "Candidates and Parties in Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 617-632, September.
    3. Alesina, Alberto & Rosenthal, Howard, 1989. "Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 373-398, June.
    4. Tufte, Edward R., 1975. "Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 812-826, September.
    5. Chrystal, K Alec & Alt, James E, 1981. "Some Problems in Formulating and Testing a Politico-Economic Model of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(363), pages 730-736, September.
    6. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    7. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1980. "British Government Popularity and Economic Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(3593), pages 569-581, September.
    8. Hudson, John, 1985. "The Relationship Between Government Popularity and Approval for the Government's Record in the United Kingdom," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 165-186, April.
    9. Kernell, Samuel, 1977. "Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting: An Alternative Explanation of the Midterm Congressional Decline of the President's Party," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(1), pages 44-66, March.
    10. Marsh, Michael, 1998. "Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 591-607, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Manow, Philip & Burkhart, Simone, 2004. "Legislative Autolimitation under Divided Government: Evidence from the German Case, 1976-2002," MPIfG Discussion Paper 04/11, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burkhart, Simone, 2008. "Blockierte Politik: Ursachen und Folgen von "Divided Government" in Deutschland," Schriften aus dem Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Köln, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, volume 60, number 60.
    2. Manow, Philip, 2005. "National Vote Intention and European Voting Behavior, 1979-2004: Second Order Election Effects, Election Timing, Government Approval and the Europeanization of European Elections," MPIfG Discussion Paper 05/11, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    3. Toke S. Aidt & Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2007. "Election Results and Opportunistic Policies: An Integrated Approach," NIPE Working Papers 24/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Chun‐ping Chang & Yung‐hsiang Ying & Meng‐chi Hsieh, 2009. "Impact Of Macroeconomic Conditions On Government Popularity: An Ecowas Investigation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 28-44, March.
    5. F. Ploeg, 1989. "Disposable income, unemployment, inflation and state spending in a dynamic political-economic model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 211-239, March.
    6. Ganesh Manjhi & Meeta Keswani Mehra, 2019. "Dynamics of Political Budget Cycle," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 5(1), pages 135-158, March.
    7. Knight, Brian, 2017. "An Econometric Evaluation of Competing Explanations for the Midterm Gap," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 12(2), pages 205-239, September.
    8. William D. Nordhaus, 1989. "Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 1-68.
    9. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    10. Morris P. Fiorina, 1991. "Elections and the Economy in the 1980s: Short- and Long-Term Effects," NBER Chapters, in: Politics and Economics in the Eighties, pages 17-40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Halberstam, Yosh & Montagnes, B. Pablo, 2015. "Presidential coattails versus the median voter: Senator selection in US elections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 40-51.
    12. Klein, Fabio Alvim & Sakurai, Sergio Naruhiko, 2015. "Term limits and political budget cycles at the local level: evidence from a young democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 21-36.
    13. Lohmann, Susanne, 1997. "Partisan control of the money supply and decentralized appointment powers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 225-246, May.
    14. Jason Matthew DeBacker, 2015. "Flip‐Flopping: Ideological Adjustment Costs In The United States Senate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 108-128, January.
    15. Umeno, Luis Gustavo & Bugarin, Maurício Soares, 2008. "Electoral Control in the Presence of Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 28(1), May.
    16. Ray Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2389, Yale School of Management, revised 18 Mar 2007.
    17. Hibbs, Douglas A., 2010. "The 2010 Midterm Election for the US House of Representatives," MPRA Paper 25918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
    19. Fabio Milani, 2010. "Political Business Cycles In The New Keynesian Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 896-915, October.
    20. Manow, Philip & Döring, Holger, 2006. "Divided Government European Style? Electoral and Mechanical Causes of European Parliament and Council Divisions," MPIfG Discussion Paper 06/8, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mpigfde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.