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Fat-tailed models for risk estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Stoyanov, Stoyan V.
  • Rachev, Svetlozar T.
  • Racheva-Iotova, Boryana
  • Fabozzi, Frank J.

Abstract

In the post-crisis era, financial institutions seem to be more aware of the risks posed by extreme events. Even though there are attempts to adapt methodologies drawing from the vast academic literature on the topic, there is also skepticism that fat-tailed models are needed. In this paper, we address the common criticism and discuss three popular methods for extreme risk modeling based on full distribution modeling and and extreme value theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Stoyanov, Stoyan V. & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Racheva-Iotova, Boryana & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "Fat-tailed models for risk estimation," Working Paper Series in Economics 30, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kitwps:30
    DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000023244
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stoyanov, Stoyan V. & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2013. "CVaR sensitivity with respect to tail thickness," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 977-988.
    2. Kanamura, Takashi & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "A profit model for spread trading with an application to energy futures," Working Paper Series in Economics 27, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    3. Shin Kim, Young & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Leonardo Bianchi, Michele & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2010. "Tempered stable and tempered infinitely divisible GARCH models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2096-2109, September.
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    2. Nahai-Williamson, Paul & Ota, Tomohiro & Vital, Mathieu & Wetherilt, Anne, 2013. "Financial Stability Paper No 19: Central counterparties and their financial resources – a numerical approach," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 19, Bank of England.
    3. Marie-Hélène Broihanne & Maxime Merli & Patrick Roger, 2016. "Diversification, gambling and market forces," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 129-157, July.
    4. Liu, Wei-han, 2018. "Hidden Markov model analysis of extreme behaviors of foreign exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 1007-1019.
    5. Salih Çam, 2023. "Asset Allocation with Combined Models Based on Game-Theory Approach and Markov Chain Models," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(39), pages 26-36, December.
    6. Carlo Drago & Andrea Scozzari, 2022. "Evaluating conditional covariance estimates via a new targeting approach and a networks-based analysis," Papers 2202.02197, arXiv.org.
    7. Baul, Tushi & Karlan, Dean & Toyama, Kentaro & Vasilaky, Kathryn, 2024. "Improving smallholder agriculture via video-based group extension," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Yu, Xing & Zhang, Wei Guo & Liu, Yong Jun & Wang, Xinxin & Wang, Chao, 2020. "Hedging the exchange rate risk for international portfolios," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 85-104.
    9. Gueorgui S. Konstantinov & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2022. "The Geometry of the World of Currency Volatilities," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 125-145, June.
    10. Seyfi, Seyed Mohammad Sina & Sharifi, Azin & Arian, Hamidreza, 2021. "Portfolio Value-at-Risk and expected-shortfall using an efficient simulation approach based on Gaussian Mixture Model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1056-1079.
    11. Gordon M. Bodnar & Erasmo Giambona & John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2019. "A View Inside Corporate Risk Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(11), pages 5001-5026, November.
    12. Eom, Cheoljun & Kaizoji, Taisei & Scalas, Enrico, 2019. "Fat tails in financial return distributions revisited: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 526(C).
    13. Paul R. Dewick, 2022. "On Financial Distributions Modelling Methods: Application on Regression Models for Time Series," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-15, October.
    14. Berninghaus, Siegfried K. & Todorova, Lora & Vogt, Bodo, 2011. "A simple questionnaire can change everything: Are strategy choices in coordination games stable?," Working Paper Series in Economics 37, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    15. Fabozzi Frank J. & Stoyanov Stoyan V. & Rachev Svetlozar T., 2013. "Computational aspects of portfolio risk estimation in volatile markets: a survey," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 103-120, February.
    16. Oliveira, Alexandre Silva de & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio & Albrecht, Peter, 2023. "Performance comparison of multifractal techniques and artificial neural networks in the construction of investment portfolios," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    17. Meyborg, Mirja, 2011. "The impact of West-German universities on regional innovation activities: A social network analysis," Working Paper Series in Economics 35, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    18. Schosser, Stephan & Vogt, Bodo, 2011. "The public loss game: An experimental study of public bads," Working Paper Series in Economics 33, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    19. Seyed Mohammad Sina Seyfi & Azin Sharifi & Hamidreza Arian, 2020. "Portfolio Risk Measurement Using a Mixture Simulation Approach," Papers 2011.07994, arXiv.org.
    20. Schaffer, Axel, 2011. "Appropriate policy measures to attract private capital in consideration of regional efficiency in using infrastructure and human capital," Working Paper Series in Economics 31, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    21. Hamidreza Arian & Hossein Poorvasei & Azin Sharifi & Shiva Zamani, 2020. "The Uncertain Shape of Grey Swans: Extreme Value Theory with Uncertain Threshold," Papers 2011.06693, arXiv.org.
    22. Andrey Yu. Nevela & Victor A. Lapshin, 2022. "Model Risk and Basic Approaches to its Estimation on Example of Market Risk Models," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 2, pages 91-112, April.
    23. Justo Puerto & Federica Ricca & Mois'es Rodr'iguez-Madrena & Andrea Scozzari, 2021. "A combinatorial optimization approach to scenario filtering in portfolio selection," Papers 2103.01123, arXiv.org.
    24. Audrius Kabašinskas & Kristina Šutienė & Miloš Kopa & Kęstutis Lukšys & Kazimieras Bagdonas, 2020. "Dominance-Based Decision Rules for Pension Fund Selection under Different Distributional Assumptions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-26, May.

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