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Schwache Konjunktur im Euroraum: Nur langsamer Abbau der Ungleichgewichte

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Nach dem Einbruch im Winterhalbjahr 2008/09 stabilisierte sich die Produktion im Euroraum im weiteren Verlauf des Jahres 2009. Trotz der weiterhin expansiv ausgerichteten Geldpolitik zeichnet sich im Prognosezeitraum aber nur eine schwache Belebung ab. Die Wirtschaft wird von den Folgen von Verschuldungskrisen in einigen Mitgliedsländern belastet. Für das laufende Jahr erwarten wir einen Anstieg der Produktion um 0,7 Prozent. Im Euroraum ohne Deutschland wird die Dynamik noch etwas schwächer sein. Daran dürfte sich auch im Jahr 2011 kein starker Aufschwung anschließen. Mit Zuwachsraten des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 1,5 Prozent im Euroraum und 1,4 Prozent im übrigen Euroraum wird sich die Konjunktur aber wohl leicht beleben.

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Schwache Konjunktur im Euroraum: Nur langsamer Abbau der Ungleichgewichte," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45583, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:45583
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    1. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2010," Kiel Discussion Papers 478, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Moderate Erholung in Deutschland - Arbeitsmarkt in erstaunlich guter Verfassung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45584, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2010: Erholung setzt sich fort – Risiken bleiben groß," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(08), pages 03-78, April.
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2010. "Ist Griechenland noch zu retten? Und der Euro?," Kiel Policy Brief 19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Schwellenländer tragen die Expansion der Weltwirtschaft," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45590, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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