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Three sisters: The interlinkage between sovereign debt, currency, and banking crises

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  • Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W.
  • Karataş, Bilge

Abstract

This study analyzes the interlinkage between sovereign debt, currency, and banking crises by applying panel data probit and multivariate probit models to a sample of 21 emerging economies observed monthly between 1985 and 2020. The results establish the simultaneity of the three crises in a given month, where banking, sovereign debt, and currency crises tend to occur jointly caused by common unobservable factors. The results also indicate that banking crises usually precede sovereign defaults, but not vice versa. Indirect effects suggest that short-term external indebtedness during banking crises, and misaligned exchange rates corrected by currency crises increase the future sovereign default likelihood.

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  • Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2023. "Three sisters: The interlinkage between sovereign debt, currency, and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:131:y:2023:i:c:s0261560622002017
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102798
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt crisis; Banking crisis; Currency crisis; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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