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On the importance of fiscal space: Evidence from short sellers during the COVID-19 pandemic

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  • Greppmair, Stefan
  • Jank, Stephan
  • Smajlbegovic, Esad

Abstract

Using the exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, we study how informed market participants evaluate fiscal space. Short-selling activity shifted upon the onset of the pandemic towards companies with low financial flexibility only in countries with limited fiscal space. Among these companies, short sellers targeted especially those that generate their revenue mainly in the domestic market. These short sellers entered their positions before the market crash, generating thereby a significant abnormal return. These findings support the notion that short sellers bet on the inability of governments with budgetary constraints to provide sufficient stimulus to their economy in times of crises.

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  • Greppmair, Stefan & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "On the importance of fiscal space: Evidence from short sellers during the COVID-19 pandemic," Discussion Papers 29/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:292021
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    2. Bessler, Wolfgang & Vendrasco, Marco, 2022. "Short-selling restrictions and financial stability in Europe: Evidence from the Covid-19 crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    Keywords

    COVID-19 pandemic; short selling; fiscal space; institutional investors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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