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De facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus: Definition and Assessment

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Yothin Jinjarak

Abstract

We define the notion of a 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the inverse of the tax-years it would take to repay the public debt. Specifically, we measure the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across several years to smooth for business cycle fluctuations. We apply this concept to account for the cross-country variation in the fiscal stimulus associated with the global crisis of 2009-2010. We find that greater de facto fiscal space prior to the global crisis, higher GDP/capita, higher financial exposure to the US, and lower trade openness were associated with a higher fiscal stimulus/GDP during 2009-2010. Joint estimation indicates that higher trade openness was associated with lower fiscal stimulus and higher depreciation rate during 2009-2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2010. "De facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus: Definition and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 16539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16539
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    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2009. "Globalisation and Developing Countries - a Shrinking Tax Base?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 653-671.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2010. "De facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus: Definition and Assessment," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6dn0n13t, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2010. "Fiscal fragility: what the past may say about the future," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7mf244m2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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