IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/9937.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Distribution of Crisis Credit : Effects on Firm Indebtedness and Aggregate Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Huneeus,Federico
  • Kaboski,Joseph P.
  • Larrain,Mauricio
  • Schmukler,Sergio L.
  • Vera,Mario

Abstract

This paper studies the distribution of credit during crisis times and its impact on firmindebtedness and macroeconomic risk. Whereas policies can help firms in need of financing, they can lead to adverseselection from riskier firms and higher default risk. The paper analyzes a large-scale program of public creditguarantees in Chile during the COVID-19 pandemic using unique transaction-level data on the demand and supply ofcredit, matched with administrative tax data, for the universe of banks and firms. Credit demand channels loanstoward riskier firms, distributing 4.6 percent of gross domestic product and increasing firm leverage. Despiteincreased lending to riskier firms, macroeconomic risks remain small. Several factors mitigate aggregate risk: thesmall weight of riskier firms, the exclusion of the riskiest firms, bank screening, contained expected defaults, and thegovernment absorption of tail risk. The empirical findings are confirmed with a model of heterogeneous firms andendogenous default.

Suggested Citation

  • Huneeus,Federico & Kaboski,Joseph P. & Larrain,Mauricio & Schmukler,Sergio L. & Vera,Mario, 2022. "The Distribution of Crisis Credit : Effects on Firm Indebtedness and Aggregate Risk," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9937, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9937
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/874031644864101145/pdf/The-Distribution-of-Crisis-Credit-Effects-on-Firm-Indebtedness-and-Aggregate-Risk.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre Cahuc & Francis Kramarz & Sandra Nevoux, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Short-Time Work: From Saved Jobs to Windfall Effects," Working Papers hal-03881632, HAL.
    2. Didier, Tatiana & Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2012. "The Role of Debt and Equity Finance Over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1262-1286, December.
    4. Fabiano Schivardi & Enrico Sette & Guido Tabellini, 2022. "Credit Misallocation During the European Financial Crisis," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 391-423.
    5. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    6. Lei Li & Philip E. Strahan & Song Zhang, 2020. "Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gregory S. Crawford & Nicola Pavanini & Fabiano Schivardi, 2018. "Asymmetric Information and Imperfect Competition in Lending Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1659-1701, July.
    8. Giulia Giupponi & Camille Landais, 2023. "Subsidizing Labour Hoarding in Recessions: The Employment and Welfare Effects of Short-time Work," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(4), pages 1963-2005.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6596a4s9af8lt872jnqvm5jg73 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Elena Carletti & Tommaso Oliviero & Marco Pagano & Loriana Pelizzon & Marti G Subrahmanyam, 2020. "The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-Level Evidence from Italy," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 534-568.
    11. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6596a4s9af8lt872jnqvm5jg73 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Luc Laeven & David Moreno, 2022. "Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2353-2395.
    14. Pierre Cahuc & Francis Kramarz & Sandra Nevoux, 2018. "When Short-Time Work Works," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03393127, HAL.
    15. William Mullins & Patricio Toro, 2018. "Credit Guarantees and New Bank Relationships," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 820, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Viral V Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 0. "The Risk of Being a Fallen Angel and the Corporate Dash for Cash in the Midst of COVID," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 430-471.
    17. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2001. "Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1286-1310, December.
    18. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    19. Claire Lelarge & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2010. "Entrepreneurship and Credit Constraints: Evidence from a French Loan Guarantee Program," NBER Chapters, in: International Differences in Entrepreneurship, pages 243-273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Markus Brunnermeier & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 0. "The Macroeconomics of Corporate Debt," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 656-665.
    21. Granja, João & Makridis, Christos & Yannelis, Constantine & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 725-761.
    22. Lei Li & Philip E Strahan & Song Zhang, 2020. "Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 472-500.
    23. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2008. "Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Heterogeneous Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 707-720, October.
    24. Becker, Bo & Ivashina, Victoria, 2014. "Cyclicality of credit supply: Firm level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-93.
    25. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
    26. Daniel Kopp & Michael Siegenthaler, 2021. "Short-Time Work and Unemployment in and after the Great Recession [Does Employment Protection Inhibit Labor Market Flexibility? Lessons from Germany, France, and Belgium]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 2283-2321.
    27. Bennedsen, Morten & Larsen, Birthe & Schmutte, Ian & Scur, Daniela, 2020. "Preserving job matches during the COVID-19 pandemic: firm-level evidence on the role of government aid," GLO Discussion Paper Series 588, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    28. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
    29. Cevik Serhan & Miryugin Fedor, 2022. "Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 73(1), pages 79-101, April.
    30. Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
    31. Viral V Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 2020. "The Risk of Being a Fallen Angel and the Corporate Dash for Cash in the Midst of COVID," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 430-471.
    32. Mr. Federico J Diez & Mr. Romain A Duval & Jiayue Fan & Jose M Garrido & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Chiara Maggi & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Mr. Nicola Pierri, 2021. "Insolvency Prospects Among Small-and-Medium-Sized Enterprises in Advanced Economies: Assessment and Policy Options," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2021/002, International Monetary Fund.
    33. J. David Brown & John S. Earle, 2017. "Finance and Growth at the Firm Level: Evidence from SBA Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1039-1080, June.
    34. de Blasio, Guido & De Mitri, Stefania & D'Ignazio, Alessio & Finaldi Russo, Paolo & Stoppani, Lavinia, 2018. "Public guarantees to SME borrowing. A RDD evaluation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 73-86.
    35. Gale, William G, 1991. "Economic Effects of Federal Credit Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 133-152, March.
    36. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    37. Gabriel Jiménez & José-Luis Peydró & Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Burning Money? Government Lending in a Credit Crunch," Working Papers 984, Barcelona School of Economics.
    38. Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2010. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    39. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2ju03cb3kc9a3986bsibii70hd is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Alexander Hijzen & Danielle Venn, 2011. "The Role of Short-Time Work Schemes during the 2008-09 Recession," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 115, OECD Publishing.
    41. Glennon, Dennis & Nigro, Peter, 2005. "Measuring the Default Risk of Small Business Loans: A Survival Analysis Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 923-947, October.
    42. Lei Li & Philip E Strahan & Song Zhang, 0. "Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 472-500.
    43. Ufuk Akcigit & Unal Seven & Ibrahim Yarba & Fatih Yilmaz, 2021. "Firm-Level Impact of Credit Guarantees: Evidence from Turkish Credit Guarantee Fund," Working Papers 2110, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    44. Ryan Banerjee & Boris Hofmann, 2022. "Corporate zombies: anatomy and life cycle," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(112), pages 757-803.
    45. Chari, Anusha & Jain, Lakshita & Kulkarni, Nirupama, 2021. "The Unholy Trinity: Regulatory Forbearance, Stressed Banks and Zombie Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 15773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Feyen, Erik & Alonso Gispert, Tatiana & Kliatskova, Tatsiana & Mare, Davide S., 2021. "Financial Sector Policy Response to COVID-19 in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    47. Tirupam Goel & José María Serena Garralda, 2020. "Bonds and syndicated loans during the Covid-19 crisis: decoupled again?," BIS Bulletins 29, Bank for International Settlements.
    48. Martin, Philippe & Cros, Mathieu & Epaulard, Anne, 2021. "Will Schumpeter Catch Covid-19?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    49. Elena Carletti & Tommaso Oliviero & Marco Pagano & Loriana Pelizzon & Marti G Subrahmanyam, 0. "The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-Level Evidence from Italy," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 534-568.
    50. Xavier Cirera & Marcio Cruz & Elwyn Davies & Arti Grover & Leonardo Iacovone & Jose Ernesto Lopez Cordova & Denis Medvedev & Franklin Okechukwu Maduko & Gaurav Nayyar & Santiago Reyes Ortega & Jesica , 2021. "Policies to Support Businesses through the COVID-19 Shock: A Firm Level Perspective [Economic Uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 41-66.
    51. Gale, William G., 1990. "Federal lending and the market for credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 177-193, July.
    52. Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek & Florian Keller, 0. "COVID-19: guaranteed Loans and Zombie Firms," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 66(4), pages 322-364.
    53. Li, Lei & Strahan, Philip E., 2021. "Who Supplies PPP Loans (and Does It Matter)? Banks, Relationships, and the COVID Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(7), pages 2411-2438, November.
    54. Pierre Cahuc & Francis Kramarz & Sandra Nevoux, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Short-Time Work: From Saved Jobs to Windfall Effects," SciencePo Working papers hal-03602410, HAL.
    55. Smith, Bruce, 1983. "Limited Information, Credit Rationing, and Optimal Government Lending Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 305-318, June.
    56. Markus Brunnermeier & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2020. "The Macroeconomics of Corporate Debt," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 656-665.
    57. De Marco, Filippo & Core, Fabrizio, 2021. "Information Technology and Credit: Evidence from Public Guarantees," CEPR Discussion Papers 15799, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Bachas, Natalie & Kim, Olivia S. & Yannelis, Constantine, 2021. "Loan guarantees and credit supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 872-894.
    59. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2ju03cb3kc9a3986bsibii70hd is not listed on IDEAS
    60. Landais, Camille & Giupponi, Giulia, 2018. "Subsidizing Labor Hoarding in Recessions: The Employment & Welfare Effects of Short Time Work," CEPR Discussion Papers 13310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Gómez & Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa, 2024. "Firm Support Measures, Credit Payment Behavior, and Credit Risk," Borradores de Economia 1277, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Léon, Florian, 2023. "Public bank lending in Africa in times of crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Giuseppe Cascarino & Raffaele Gallo & Francesco Palazzo & Enrico Sette, 2022. "Public guarantees and credit additionality during the Covid-19 pandemic," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1369, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Péter Harasztosi & Laurent Maurin & Rozália Pál & Debora Revoltella & Wouter van der Wielen, 2022. "Firm-level policy support during the crisis: So far, so good?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 171, pages 30-48.
    2. Berger, Allen N. & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, 2021. "Banking research in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 612-652, April.
    4. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel & Darmouni, Olivier & Luck, Stephan & Plosser, Matthew, 2022. "Bank liquidity provision across the firm size distribution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 908-932.
    5. Altavilla, Carlo & Ellul, Andrew & Pagano, Marco & Polo, Andrea & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "Loan guarantees, bank lending and credit risk reallocation," CFS Working Paper Series 672, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Bonfim, Diana & Custódio, Cláudia & Raposo, Clara, 2023. "Supporting small firms through recessions and recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 658-688.
    7. Kazakov, Aleksandr & Koetter, Michael & Titze, Mirko & Tonzer, Lena, 2022. "Firm subsidies, financial intermediation, and bank risk," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    8. Marsh, W. Blake & Sharma, Padma, 2024. "Loan guarantees in a crisis: An antidote to a credit crunch?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Bo Becker & Efraim Benmelech, 2021. "The Resilience of the U.S. Corporate Bond Market During Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 28868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hasan, Iftekhar & Politsidis, Panagiotis N. & Sharma, Zenu, 2021. "Global syndicated lending during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Correa, Ricardo & Sapriza, Horacio & Zlate, Andrei, 2021. "Wholesale funding runs, global banks' supply of liquidity insurance, and corporate investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Özlem Dursun-de Neef, H. & Schandlbauer, Alexander, 2021. "COVID-19 and lending responses of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Carletti, Elena & Leonello, Agnese & Marquez, Robert, 2023. "Loan guarantees, bank underwriting policies and financial stability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 260-295.
    14. Giuseppe Cascarino & Raffaele Gallo & Francesco Palazzo & Enrico Sette, 2022. "Public guarantees and credit additionality during the Covid-19 pandemic," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 172, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    15. Li, Xiang, 2022. "The role of state-owned banks in crises: Evidence from German banks during COVID-19," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2022.
    16. Beck, Thorsten & Keil, Jan, 2022. "Have banks caught corona? Effects of COVID on lending in the U.S," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Théo Nicolas & Stefano Ungaro & Éric Vansteenberghe, 2023. "Public-Guaranteed Loans, Bank Risk-Taking and Regulatory Capital Windfall [Prêts garantis par l'État, prise de risque bancaire et effet d'aubaine sur le capital réglementaire]," Débats économiques et financiers 41, Banque de France.
    18. Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Corporate indebtedness and macroeconomic stabilisation from a long-term perspective," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 024, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    19. Norden, Lars & Mesquita, Daniel & Wang, Weichao, 2021. "COVID-19, policy interventions and credit: The Brazilian experience," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    20. Ali Gungoraydinoglu & Ilke Öztekin & Özde Öztekin, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 and Its Policy Responses on Local Economy and Health Conditions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-27, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Crisis Management & Restructuring; Financial Regulation & Supervision; Administrative & Civil Service Reform; De Facto Governments; Public Sector Administrative and Civil Service Reform; Public Sector Administrative & Civil Service Reform; Democratic Government; Labor Markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.