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Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment

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  • Mr. Serhan Cevik
  • Fedor Miryugin

Abstract

The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This systemic risk like no other at a time of record-breaking debt levels, especially among nonfinancial firms across the world, could exacerbate corporate vulnerabilities, deepen macro-financial instability, and cause long-lasting damage to economic potential. Using data on more than 2.8 million nonfinancial firms from 52 countries during the period 1997–2018, we develop a two-pronged approach to investigate the relationship between corporate leverage and fixed investment spending. The empirical analysis, robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, confirm corporate leverage is highly vulnerable to disruptions in profitability and cash flow at the firm level and economic growth at the aggregate level. These findings imply that corporate debt overhang could become a strenuous burden on nonfinancial firms, especially if the COVID-19 pandemic lingers and global downturn becomes protracted.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serhan Cevik & Fedor Miryugin, 2020. "Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment," IMF Working Papers 2020/287, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/287
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    Cited by:

    1. Huneeus, Federico & Kaboski, Joseph & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Vera, Mario, 2022. "The Distribution of Crisis Credit: Effects on Firm Indebtedness and Aggregate Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 17061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Hubert Bruslerie & Luminita Enache, 2023. "The dynamics of leverage of newly controlled target firms: evidence after an acquisition," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 411-445, August.
    3. Serhan Cevik & Alice Fan & Sadhna Naik, 2024. "Is inflation good for business? the firm-level impact of inflation shocks in the Baltics, 1997–2020," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1-19, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate debt; leverage; debt overhang; fixed investment; firm-level; WP; nonfinancial firm; firm level; sector peer; investment appetite; empirical inquiry; firm size; firms' behavior; indebted firm;
    All these keywords.

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