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Will Schumpeter Catch Covid-19?

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  • Martin, Philippe
  • Cros, Mathieu
  • Epaulard, Anne

Abstract

We estimate the factors predicting firm failures in the COVID crisis based on French data in 2020. Although the number of firms filling for bankruptcy was much below its normal level (- 36% compared to 2019) the same factors that predicted firm failures (primarily productivity and debt) in 2019 are at work in a similar way as in 2020. Hence, the selection process, although much reduced, has not been distorted in 2020. At this stage, partial hibernation rather than zombification characterises the selection into firm survival or failure. We also find that the sectoral heterogeneity of the turnover COVID shock (proxied by the change in credit card transactions) has been largely (but not fully) absorbed by public policy support because it predicts little of the probability of bankruptcy at the firm level. Finally, we sketch some potential scenarios for 2021-2022 for different sectors based on our empirical estimates of predictors of firm failures.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin, Philippe & Cros, Mathieu & Epaulard, Anne, 2021. "Will Schumpeter Catch Covid-19?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15834
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    1. Guerini, Mattia & Nesta, Lionel & Ragot, Xavier & Schiavo, Stefano, 2024. "Zombification of the economy? Assessing the effectiveness of French government support during COVID-19 lockdown," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 263-280.
    2. Huneeus, Federico & Kaboski, Joseph & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Vera, Mario, 2022. "The Distribution of Crisis Credit: Effects on Firm Indebtedness and Aggregate Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 17061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Enisse Kharroubi, 2022. "Growth expectations and the dynamics of firm entry," BIS Working Papers 1036, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Konings, Jozef & Magerman, Glenn & Van Esbroeck, Dieter, 2023. "The impact of firm-level Covid rescue policies on productivity growth and reallocation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    5. Harasztosi, Péter & Maurin, Laurent & Pál, Rozália & Revoltella, Debora & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2022. "Firm-level policy support during the crisis: So far, so good?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 30-48.
    6. Nuno Cassola & Paul De Grauwe & Claudio Morana & Patrizio Tirelli, 2021. "The risks of exiting too early the policy responses to the COVID-19 recession," Working Paper series 21-22, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Gil Nogueira, 2022. "Corporate insolvency and restructuring during COVID-19," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Masayuki Morikawa, 2023. "Productivity and wages of firms using COVID‐19‐related support policies," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 104(3), pages 202-213, May.
    9. Zofia Gródek-Szostak & Jadwiga Adamczyk & Małgorzata Luc & Marcin Suder & Justyna Tora & Karolina Kotulewicz-Wisińska & Wojciech Zysk & Anna Szeląg-Sikora, 2022. "Hard Cash in Hard Times—The Effect of Institutional Support for Businesses Shaken by COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Ascari, Guido & Colciago, Andrea & Silvestrini, Riccardo, 2023. "Business dynamism, sectoral reallocation and productivity in a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Groenewegen, Jesse & Hardeman, Sjoerd & Stam, Erik, 2021. "Does COVID-19 state aid reach the right firms? COVID-19 state aid, turnover expectations, uncertainty and management practices," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    12. Cirera,Xavier & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Grover,Arti Goswami & Iacovone,Leonardo & Medvedev,Denis & Pereira Lopez,Mariana De La Paz & Reyes,Santiago, 2021. "Firm Recovery during COVID-19 : Six Stylized Facts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9810, The World Bank.
    13. C. A. K. Lovell, 2021. "The Pandemic, The Climate, and Productivity," CEPA Working Papers Series WP112021, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    14. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’," NBER Working Papers 29293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Julian Oliver Dörr & Georg Licht & Simona Murmann, 2022. "Small firms and the COVID-19 insolvency gap," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 887-917, February.
    16. Lalinsky, Tibor & Meriküll, Jaanika & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "Productivity-enhancing reallocation during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2947, European Central Bank.
    17. Katarzyna Boratynska, 2021. "Determinants of Economic Fragility in Central and Eastern European Countries FsQCA Approach," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3B), pages 827-837.
    18. Marco Pelosi & Giacomo Rodano & Enrico Sette, 2021. "Zombie firms and the take-up of support measures during Covid-19," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 650, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Florian Eckert & Heiner Mikosch, 2022. "Firm bankruptcies and start-up activity in Switzerland during the COVID-19 crisis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-25, December.
    20. Gärtner, Leo & Marek, Philipp, 2022. "The impact of German public support transfers on firm finance: Evidence from the Covid-19 crisis," Discussion Papers 19/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Dean Hyslop & Dave Maré & Shannon Minehan, 2023. "COVID-19 Wage Subsidy: Outcome evaluation," Working Papers 23_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    22. Archanskaia, Elizaveta & Canton, Erik & Hobza, Alexandr & Nikolov, Plamen & Simons, Wouter, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of COVID-19: A novel approach to quantifying financial distress across industries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    23. Jacques Bughin, 2023. "Are you resilient? Machine learning prediction of corporate rebound out of the Covid‐19 pandemic," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 1547-1564, April.
    24. Valentiny, Pál, 2023. "Koronavírus-járvány és versenyszabályozás [Competition policy and the coronavirus pandemic]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 398-431.

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