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COVID-19: guaranteed Loans and Zombie Firms

Author

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  • Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek
  • Florian Keller

Abstract

Based on a survey (7–13 April 2020) we evaluate the reaction of Swiss firms towards the COVID-19 crisis. Firms show little pro-active reactions towards the crisis, but decrease their business activities. The firms in the survey report that the decline in foreign demand is the single most important reason for their deteriorating business situation. Firms that faced a more difficult business situation before the crisis are affected more severely during the crisis. Moreover, we investigate the impact of the Swiss federal loan program (Bundeshilfe) on the business activities. To this end, we develop a stylized theoretical model of financially constrained heterogeneous firms. We find that policy makers face a trade-off between immediate higher unemployment rates and long-term higher public spending. The former arises from a combination of a too strong economic impact of the COVID-19 lockdown (demand drop) and too low levels of loans provided. Nevertheless, providing (too) high levels of loans to firms creates zombie firms that are going to default in the future leading to an increase in public spending. (JEL codes: D22, D25, D84, and G33)

Suggested Citation

  • Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek & Florian Keller, 0. "COVID-19: guaranteed Loans and Zombie Firms," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 66(4), pages 322-364.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:66:y::i:4:p:322-364.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifaa014
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    1. Carola Binder, 2020. "Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 721-730, October.
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    7. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Boris Hofmann, 2018. "The rise of zombie firms: causes and consequences," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
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    2. Christoph Albert & Andrea Caggese & Beatriz González, 2020. "The short- and long-run employment impact of Covid-19 through the effects of real and financial shocks on new firms," Economics Working Papers 1739, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Melcangi, Davide & Turen, Javier, 2023. "Subsidizing startups under imperfect information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 93-109.
    4. Léon, Florian, 2023. "Public bank lending in Africa in times of crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Marian Nehrebecki, 2023. "Zombification in Poland in particular during COVID-19 pandemic and low interest rates," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(2), pages 153-190.
    6. Albert, Christoph & Caggese, Andrea & González, Beatriz & Martin-Sanchez, Victor, 2023. "Income inequality and entrepreneurship: Lessons from the 2020 COVID-19 recession," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Marius Brülhart & Rafael Lalive & Tobias Lehmann & Michael Siegenthaler, 2020. "COVID-19 financial support to small businesses in Switzerland: evaluation and outlook," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Kochaniak, Katarzyna & Ulman, Paweł & Zajkowski, Robert, 2023. "Effectiveness of COVID-19 state aid for microenterprises in Poland," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 483-497.
    9. Dr. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Dr. Marc-Antoine Ramelet & Dr. Jörn Tenhofen, 2020. "Firms' participation in the COVID-19 loan programme," Working Papers 2020-25, Swiss National Bank.
    10. Alejandro Fernández-Cerezo & Beatriz Gonzalez & Mario Izquierdo Peinado & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2023. "Firm-level heterogeneity in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(42), pages 4946-4974, September.
    11. Stefano Costa & Stefano De Santis & Giovanni Dosi & Roberto Monducci & Angelica Sbardella & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2021. "Firm responses to the pandemic crisis: sticky capabilites and widespread restructuring," LEM Papers Series 2021/48, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    12. Pitabas Mohanty & Supriti Mishra, 2021. "Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on the valuation of Indian companies using a financial model," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(9), pages 2133-2151, August.
    13. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Marc-Antoine Ramelet & Jörn Tenhofen, 2021. "Firms’ participation in the Swiss COVID-19 loan programme," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-22, December.
    14. Jacques Bughin & Sybille Berjoan & Francis Hinterman & Yuhui Xiong, 2021. "Is this Time Different? Corporate Resilience in the Age of Covid-19," Working Papers TIMES² 2021-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; expectations; firm behavior; financial constraints; zombie firms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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