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Aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate in Tanzania

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  • Li, Ying
  • Rowe, Francis

Abstract

Tanzania is well placed to receive a significant increase in aid inflows in coming years. Despite the potential for the additional aid inflows to raise income levels in the country, increasing them may bring about structural changes in the economy that may be unwelcome. One such change is an appreciation of the real exchange rate that leads to a contraction of traditional export sectors and a loss of export competitiveness. This paper employs a reduced-form equilibrium real exchange rate approach to explain movements in Tanzania's real effective exchange in recent decades. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate. The authors find that the long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is influenced by terms of trade movements, the government's trade liberalization efforts, and aid inflows. Positive terms-of-trade movements are associated with an appreciation, periods of improving trade liberalization are associated with a depreciation, and increases in aid inflows are associated with a depreciation in the real effective exchange rate. Although the last result is non-standard, it is not empirically unique and does have theoretical underpinnings. A detailed analysis of this relationship over the last decade shows that the Bank of Tanzania's response to aid inflows is likely the main reason for the finding.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Ying & Rowe, Francis, 2007. "Aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4456, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4456
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2013. "Do large capital inflows hinder competitiveness? The Dutch disease in Ethiopia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1075-1088, March.
    3. Harald SCHMIDBAUER & Ece DEMIREL, 2010. "Monetary Authorities and Exchange Rate Volatility: Turkey and other Cases," EcoMod2010 259600150, EcoMod.
    4. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Development aid, remittances inflows and wages in the manufacturing sector," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 22(2), pages 278-304, December.
    5. Combes, Jean-Louis & Kinda, Tidiane & Plane, Patrick, 2012. "Capital flows, exchange rate flexibility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1034-1043.
    6. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Do Capital Inflows Hinder Competitiveness? The Real Exchange Rate in Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 1110, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Brett Rayner, 2009. "Grants, Remittances, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/075, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Kahyarara, Godius, 2024. "Dynamics and Trends of Mining in Tanzania: A Cointegration Approach, 1966-2023," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 12(2), June.
    9. Luc Savard, 2010. "Scaling up infrastructure spending in the Philippines: A CGE top-down bottom-up microsimulation approach," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 43-59.
    10. Qiaoqiao Liu & Zenggang Li, 2022. "Aid instability, aid effectiveness and economic growth," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(1), January.
    11. A. Wondemu Kifle & Potts David, 2016. "Working Paper 240 - The Impact of the Real Exchange Rate Changes on Export Performance in Tanzania and Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 2348, African Development Bank.
    12. Abdul Rashid & Fazal Husain, 2013. "Capital Inflows, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate Volatility- An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 183-206.
    13. Sayeed, Yeasmin, 2014. "Trade-offs in Achieving Human Development Goals for Bangladesh," Working Papers 2014:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    14. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Development Aid, Remittances Inflows and Wages in the Manufacturing Sector of Recipient-Countries," EconStor Preprints 213439, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Pedro Martins, 2011. "Do large capital inflows hinder competitiveness? The Dutch disease in Ethiopia," Post-Print hal-00748067, HAL.
    16. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick PLANE & Tidiane KINDA, 2010. "Capital Flows and their Impact on the Real Effective Exchange Rate," Working Papers 201032, CERDI.
    17. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Marcelin Joanis & Mathieu Paquet & Luc Savard, 2015. "Impact de productivité des infrastructures: Une application au Québec," Cahiers de recherche 15-06, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    18. Petro S Magai & Alejandro Márquez-Velázquez, 2011. "Tanzania’s Mining Sector and Its Implications for the Country’s Development," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1104, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.

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    Keywords

    Currencies and Exchange Rates; Debt Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Emerging Markets; Economic Stabilization;
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