IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/devpol/v40y2022i1ne12542.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aid instability, aid effectiveness and economic growth

Author

Listed:
  • Qiaoqiao Liu
  • Zenggang Li

Abstract

Motivation Despite large flows of official development assistance, the performance of recipient economies has been discouraging. Aid effectiveness, including the effect of instability of aid flows, has thus become a central concern. Purpose This article assesses the effect of unstable aid flows on aid effectiveness and economic growth. Approach and Methods We divide the aid effect into two stages: without‐aid and with‐aid. The impact of aid volatility is determined by the direction of volatility, the paths of aid and the incidence of its impact on the economy. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is applied to the panel data of 78 aid recipients from 2003 to 2017. Findings An open economy magnifies the impact of aid fluctuations (both positive and negative) for recipients highly dependent on aid. No statistically significant influence of aid volatility on growth can be seen. Volatility may however matter, since positive and negative impacts may offset each other. Aid unpredictability weakens aid efficiency and thus cripples growth. Policy Implications Donor agencies should make their assistance more predictable, above all in countries that depend heavily on aid.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiaoqiao Liu & Zenggang Li, 2022. "Aid instability, aid effectiveness and economic growth," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(1), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:devpol:v:40:y:2022:i:1:n:e12542
    DOI: 10.1111/dpr.12542
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12542
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/dpr.12542?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fuchs, Andreas & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2013. "The Needy Donor: An Empirical Analysis of India’s Aid Motives," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 110-128.
    2. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2001. "Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 641-672, November.
    3. Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs, 2015. "Rogue aid? An empirical analysis of China's aid allocation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 988-1023, August.
    4. Eifert, Benn & Gelb, Alan, 2005. "Improving the dynamics of aid : towards more predictable budget support," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3732, The World Bank.
    5. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2006. "Aid and the Supply Side: Public Investment, Export Performance, and Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(2), pages 261-290.
    6. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92.
    7. Kathavate, Jay, 2013. "Direct & Indirect Effects of Aid Volatility on Growth: Do Stronger Institutions Play a Role?," MPRA Paper 45187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mr. A. J Hamann & Mr. Aleš Bulíř, 2001. "How Volatile and Unpredictable Are Aid Flows, and What Are the Policy Implications?," IMF Working Papers 2001/167, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    10. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe & Catherine Bérubé, 2006. "The Potential of Foreign Aid as Insurance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-5.
    11. Selaya, Pablo & Sunesen, Eva Rytter, 2012. "Does Foreign Aid Increase Foreign Direct Investment?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2155-2176.
    12. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-4.
    13. Manmohan Agarwal & Bharat Hazari & Li Xindun, 2010. "Corruption, foreign aid and welfare to the poor," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 305-312.
    14. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    15. Oliver Morrissey, 2001. "Does aid increase growth?," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 1(1), pages 37-50, January.
    16. Simeon Djankov & Jose Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2008. "The curse of aid," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 169-194, September.
    17. Morrison, Catherine J & Schwartz, Amy Ellen, 1996. "State Infrastructure and Productive Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1095-1111, December.
    18. George Economides & Sarantis Kalyvitis & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2008. "Does foreign aid distort incentives and hurt growth? Theory and evidence from 75 aid-recipient countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 463-488, March.
    19. Oya Celasun & Jan Walliser, 2008. "Predictability of aid: Do fickle donors undermine aid effectiveness? [‘The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(55), pages 546-594.
    20. Matthias Busse & Ruth Hoekstra & Jens Königer, 2012. "The Impact of Aid for Trade Facilitation on the Costs of Trading," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 143-163, May.
    21. Collier, Paul, 1999. "Aid 'Dependency': A Critique," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(4), pages 528-545, December.
    22. Ralf Hepp, 2005. "Can Debt Relief Buy Growth?," International Finance 0510003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Tavares, Jose, 2003. "Does foreign aid corrupt?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 99-106, April.
    24. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross‐Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    25. Anil Markandya & Vladimir Ponczek & Soonhwa Yi, 2011. "What are the links between aid volatility and growth?," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 44(2), pages 41-68, January-M.
    26. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    27. Ning Ding & Barry C. Field, 2005. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growths," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(4).
    28. Manmohan Agarwal & Bharat Hazari & Li Xindun, 2010. "Corruption, foreign aid and welfare to the poor," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 305-312.
    29. Knack, Stephen & Keefer, Philip, 1995. "Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Indicators," MPRA Paper 23118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Kevin M. Morrison, 2012. "What Can We Learn about the "Resource Curse" from Foreign Aid?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 27(1), pages 52-73, February.
    31. Ahiteme N. Houndonougbo, 2017. "Aid Volatility and Real Business Cycles in a Developing Open Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(3), pages 756-773, January.
    32. Li, Ying & Rowe, Francis, 2007. "Aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4456, The World Bank.
    33. Ravetti, Chiara & Sarr, Mare & Swanson, Tim, 2018. "Foreign aid and political instability in resource-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 277-294.
    34. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Norman, Neville R., 2015. "The dynamics of information and communications technologies infrastructure, economic growth, and financial development: Evidence from Asian countries," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 135-149.
    35. Kathavate, Jay & Mallik, Girijasankar, 2012. "The impact of the Interaction between institutional quality and aid volatility on growth: theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 716-724.
    36. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    37. Aleš Bulíř & A Javier Hamann, 2007. "Volatility of Development Aid: An Update," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(4), pages 727-739, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert C. M. Beyer & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2024. "Good enough for outstanding growth: The experience of Bangladesh in comparative perspective," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 42(2), March.
    2. Panika Jain & Samaresh Bardhan, 2023. "Energy aid volatility across developing countries: a disaggregated sectoral analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 457-483, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    2. Lisa Chauvet & Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "Aid, Volatility, and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When it Does Not," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 452-463, August.
    3. Lisa CHAUVET & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2006. "Aid, Volatility and Growth,with special reference to Africa," Working Papers 200640, CERDI.
    4. Ojiambo Elphas & Jacob Oduor & Mburu Tom & Wawire Nelson, 2015. "Working Paper 226 - Aid Unpredictability and Economic Growth in Kenya," Working Paper Series 2169, African Development Bank.
    5. Maruta, Admasu Asfaw & Banerjee, Rajabrata & Cavoli, Tony, 2020. "Foreign aid, institutional quality and economic growth: Evidence from the developing world," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 444-463.
    6. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2010. "Aid volatility and poverty traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-7, January.
    7. Boateng, Elliot & Agbola, Frank W. & Mahmood, Amir, 2021. "Foreign aid volatility and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does institutional quality matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 111-127.
    8. Askarov, Zohid & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2015. "Aid and institutions in transition economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 55-70.
    9. Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011. "Foreign aid - a fillip for development or a fuel for corruption?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 158, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2004. "On The Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages 191-216, June.
    11. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Aid for trade unpredictability and trade-related government expenditure in recipient-countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 107-125.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5400 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Chauvet, Lisa & Ehrhart, Hélène, 2018. "Aid and growth: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 461-477.
    14. Jean-Louis Combes & Rasmané Ouedraogo, 2014. "Does Pro-cyclical Aid Lead to Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy? An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa," CERDI Working papers halshs-01084600, HAL.
    15. Menard, Audrey-Rose & Weill, Laurent, 2016. "Understanding the link between aid and corruption: A causality analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 260-272.
    16. Deepraj Mukherjee, 2018. "Corruption in International Business: Does Economic Globalization Help?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 623-634, June.
    17. Maruta, Admasu Asfaw, 2019. "Can aid for financial sector buy financial development?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. repec:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:s1:p:452-463 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    20. Broich, Tobias, 2017. "Do authoritarian regimes receive more Chinese development finance than democratic ones? Empirical evidence for Africa," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 180-207.
    21. Shrabani Saha & Kunal Sen, 2019. "The corruption-growth relationship: Do political institutions matter?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-65, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Gaoussou Diarra, 2011. "Aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity: analyzing disbursement delays in Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 1004-1017.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:devpol:v:40:y:2022:i:1:n:e12542. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/odioruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.