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Transferts de fonds des migrants et mésalignement du change réel

Author

Listed:
  • Nader Nefzi

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord)

  • Joel Oudinet

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord)

  • Mouez Soussi

    (Prospective, Stratégies et Développement Durable PS2D - Prospective, Stratégies et Développement Durable)

Abstract

L’impact des transferts de fonds des migrants sur le taux de change effectif réel TCER est analysé pour un panel de trois pays du Maghreb, la Tunisie, le Maroc et l’Algérie, entre 1980 et 2015, à l’aide de la méthode des moindres carrés généralisés estimés réalisables (MCGE ou FGLS, « feasible generalized least squares ») qui permet d’obtenir des estima-tions cohérentes et efficaces et de réduire le biais. Les résultats montrent, contrairement à ce qui est constaté pour les pays d’Amérique latine, que l'afflux des transferts de fonds entraîne non pas une appréciation mais une très légère dépréciation du TCER à long terme. Ce taux de change effectif réel d’équilibre, estimé sur la base de ses fondamentaux macroéconomiques, permet de calculer son mésalignement avec le TCER observé. En période de surévaluation, les transferts de migrants ont tendance à réduire ce mésali-gnement. En effet, les monnaies sont moins surévaluées lorsque les transferts sont pris en compte. En période de sous-évaluation, comme c’est le cas plus récemment, les transferts ont tendance à accentuer légèrement cet effet, notamment dans le cas tunisien et à un moindre degré dans le cas algérien. En conséquence, les transferts par leur impact sur le taux de change n'ont pas d'incidence négative sur la compétitivité prix des trois pays du Maghreb. L’usage des transferts par les familles récipiendaires, les caractéristiques con-tracycliques des transferts des migrants, le rôle du secteur financier et la politique de change menée réduisent le risque de sur-évaluation du change, et le « syndrome hollan-dais » qui en découlerait.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Nader Nefzi & Joel Oudinet & Mouez Soussi, 2020. "Transferts de fonds des migrants et mésalignement du change réel," Post-Print hal-03409768, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03409768
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    Cited by:

    1. Joel OUDINET, 2021. "Introduction - L’impact de la migration sur le développement inclusif," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 53, pages 5-21.
    2. Cynthia TABET & Michel ROCCA & Bachir EL MURR, 2022. "Transferts de fonds et effet boomerang : le cas du Liban (1990-2016)," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 55, pages 133-148.
    3. Joel Oudinet, 2021. "L’impact de la migration sur le développement inclusif," Post-Print hal-04065384, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transferts de fonds des migrants; Taux de change effectif réel; Syndrome hollandais; Migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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