IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2007-102.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have the Symptoms?

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Katerina Kalcheva
  • Nienke Oomes

Abstract

In this paper, we assess whether recent economic developments in Russia are symptomatic of Dutch Disease. We first provide a brief review of the literature on Dutch Disease and the natural resource curse. We then discuss the symptoms of Dutch Disease, which include (1) real exchange rate appreciation; (2) slower manufacturing growth; (3) faster service sector growth; and (4) higher overall wages. We test these predictions for Russia while carefully controlling for other factors that could have led to similar symptoms. We conclude that, while Russia has all of the symptoms, the diagnosis of Dutch Disease remains to be confirmed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have the Symptoms?," IMF Working Papers 2007/102, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20650
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?," NBER Working Papers 11657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
    3. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Arvind Subramanian, 2013. "Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 22(4), pages 570-615, August.
    5. Oomes, Nienke, 2005. "Maintaining competitiveness under equilibrium real appreciation: The case of Slovakia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 187-204, June.
    6. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
    7. Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
    8. Rudiger Ahrend, 2006. "Russian Industrial Restructuring: Trends in Productivity, Competitiveness and Comparative Advantage," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 277-295.
    9. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
    10. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1997. "Voracity and Growth," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1807, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    11. Nienke Oomes, 2005. "Maintaining Competitiveness Under Equilibrium Real Appreciation: The Case of Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 2005/065, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Shang-Jin Wei & Yi Wu, 2002. "Negative Alchemy? Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows, and Currency Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 461-506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Padma Desai, 2006. "Why Is Russian GDP Growth Slowing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 342-347, May.
    14. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    15. Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "An Alternative Interpretation of the 'Resource Curse': Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 9424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Lane, Philip R & Tornell, Aaron, 1996. "Power, Growth, and the Voracity Effect," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 213-241, June.
    17. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    18. repec:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:2:p:204-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2004. "Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries: Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses," IMF Working Papers 2004/049, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Mr. Timothy D. Lane & Mr. Ales Bulir, 2002. "Aid and Fiscal Management," IMF Working Papers 2002/112, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1991. "The EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 269-328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2006. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: From Dependence to Diversification," Springer Books, in: Harry G. Broadman & Tiiu Paas & Paul J.J. Welfens (ed.), Economic Liberalization and Integration Policy, pages 201-231, Springer.
    23. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
    24. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2003. "Aid, Public Expenditure and Dutch Disease," CSAE Working Paper Series 2003-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    25. repec:bla:econom:v:66:y:1999:i:262:p:157-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country: The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 2003/093, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Jonathan Isham & Michael Woolcock & Lant Pritchett & Gwen Busby, 2005. "The Varieties of Resource Experience: Natural Resource Export Structures and the Political Economy of Economic Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 19(2), pages 141-174.
    28. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    29. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Russian Federation: Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/378, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Bruno Merlevede & Koen Schoors & Bas van Aarle, 2004. "Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-722, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    31. repec:bla:etrans:v:10:y:2002-07:i:2:p:273-309 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1668, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1999. "A Mixed Blessing," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 204-225, June.
    34. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    35. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    37. Balázs Égert, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa‐Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see? A panel study," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 273-309, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aaron Mehrotra & Jouko Rautava, 2008. "Do sentiment indicators help to assess and predict actual developments of the Chinese economy?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 225-239.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2007_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Oomes, Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease : Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2007_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Oomes, Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease: Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    7. Rabah Arezki & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Can the Natural Resource Curse Be Turned into a Blessing? The Role of Trade Policies and Institutions," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/35, European University Institute.
    8. Kaznacheev, Peter, 2013. "Resource Rents and Economic Growth: Economic and institutional development in countries with a high share of income from the sale of natural resources. Analysis and recommendations based on internatio," EconStor Research Reports 121950, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Scholarly Articles 8694932, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Alssadek, Marwan & Benhin, James, 2023. "Natural resource curse: A literature survey and comparative assessment of regional groupings of oil-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-277, August.
    13. Alessandro Prati & Thierry Tressel, 2006. "What is the Most Effective Monetary Policy for Aid-Receiving Countries?," Working Papers 12, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    14. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    15. Rabah Arezki & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Do Natural Resources Depress Income Per Capita?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 504-521, August.
    16. Michel Beine & Serge Coulombe & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2015. "Dutch Disease and the Mitigation Effect of Migration: Evidence from Canadian Provinces," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(589), pages 1574-1615, December.
    17. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2014. "The oil curse, institutional quality, and growth in MENA countries: Evidence from time-varying cointegration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-9.
    18. Adrian Boos & Karin Holm‐Müller, 2012. "A theoretical overview of the relationship between the resource curse and genuine savings as an indicator for “weak” sustainability," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 145-159, August.
    19. Ruba A. Aljarallah & Andrew Angus, 2020. "Dilemma of Natural Resource Abundance: A Case Study of Kuwait," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.
    20. Barbier,Edward B., 2007. "Natural Resources and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521706513.
    21. Matsen, Egil & Torvik, Ragnar, 2005. "Optimal Dutch disease," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 494-515, December.
    22. Mohsen Mehrara, Mohsen & Alhosseini, Seyedmohammadsadegh & Bahramirad, Duman, 2008. "Resource curse and institutional quality in oil countries," MPRA Paper 16456, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.