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When And Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease And Growth

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  • NICOLÁS MAGUD

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

  • SEBASTIÁN SOSA

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

Abstract

We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolás Magud & Sebastián Sosa, 2013. "When And Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease And Growth," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 1-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:04:y:2013:i:02:n:s1793993313500099
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793993313500099
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberola, Enrique & Benigno, Gianluca, 2017. "Revisiting the commodity curse: A financial perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 87-106.
    2. Juan F. Yépez, 2023. "Unintended Consequences of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks: Dutch Disease and Capital Flow Measures in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(5), pages 99-144, December.
    3. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2017. "Exchange rate undervaluation and R&D activity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 148-160.
    4. Missio, Fabricio & Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Jayme, Frederico G., 2017. "Endogenous elasticities and the impact of the real exchange rate on structural economic dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-75.
    5. Claudia De la Huerta & Javier Garcia-Cicco, 2016. "Commodity Prices, Growth and Productivity: a Sectoral View," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 777, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. A. Wondemu Kifle & Potts David, 2016. "Working Paper 240 - The Impact of the Real Exchange Rate Changes on Export Performance in Tanzania and Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 2348, African Development Bank.
    7. Wang, Xiaoying & Wang, Yawen & Ameen, Anam & Wang, Kai-Hua, 2024. "Navigating the resource curse: Unraveling the role of governance in regional development in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Luo, Guibin & Zheng, Li & Zeng, Queling, 2023. "Natural resources perspective of economic performance: Streamlining mineral resources as a path to sustainable development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    9. García-Cicco, Javier & Kawamura, Enrique, 2015. "Dealing with the Dutch disease: Fiscal rules and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 205-239.
    10. Graña-Colella, Santiago & Silva Neira, Ignacio, 2024. "Export manufacture competitiveness and commodity dependence: An empirical analysis of the Dutch Disease on Argentina and Chile during the commodity price boom," IPE Working Papers 232/2024, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    11. Aqib Aslam & Samya Beidas-Strom & Mr. Rudolfs Bems & Oya Celasun & Zsoka Koczan, 2016. "Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom," IMF Working Papers 2016/027, International Monetary Fund.
    12. García-Cicco, Javier & Kawamura, Enrique, 2015. "Dealing with the Dutch disease: Fiscal rules and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 205-239.
    13. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2018. "De-Industrialization Patterns of Azerbaijan: Potential Outcomes of Dutch Disease Syndrome," EconStor Preprints 227733, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Liang, Huijun & Shi, Changkuan & Abid, Nabila & Yu, Yanliang, 2023. "Are digitalization and human development discarding the resource curse in emerging economies?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    15. Zhan, Zhan & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Cai, Xiaotong, 2021. "How exchange rate regimes are exacerbating or mitigating the resource curse?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    16. Mario Pečarić & Tino Kusanović & Pavle Jakovac, 2021. "The Determinants of FDI Sectoral Structure in the Central and East European EU Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, April.
    17. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2020. "The De-industrialization Process In Azerbaijan: Dutch Disease Syndrome Revisited," EconStor Conference Papers 227485, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dutch disease; real exchange rate; growth; F24; F31; F35; F43;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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