IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10300.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long COVID : The Evolution of Household Welfare in Developing Countries during the Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Brunckhorst,Ben James
  • Cojocaru,Alexandru
  • Hill,Ruth
  • Kim,Yeon Soo
  • Kugler,Maurice David

Abstract

This paper examines the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, using harmonized data from343 high-frequency phone surveys conducted in 80 economies during 2020 and 2021, representing more than 2.5 billionpeople. The analysis focuses on the scarring effects of the initial losses of employment and income by examining theirevolution over time across and within countries, as restrictions on mobility and economic activity wereintroduced and then gradually relaxed. The employment and welfare outcomes of some groups that were impacted to agreater degree initially—including women, informal workers, and those with less education—have been improving at aslower pace. The social protection response in lower-income economies was largely insufficient to protect householdsfrom the pandemic shock. Unmitigated welfare losses, as seen for example from the large share of households indicatingincome losses well into 2021, are highly correlated with food insecurity, which likely led some households to sellphysical assets and deplete their savings. Without proper remediation, the uneven welfare impacts associated withCOVID-19 may be amplified over the medium to long term, leading to future increases in poverty and inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Brunckhorst,Ben James & Cojocaru,Alexandru & Hill,Ruth & Kim,Yeon Soo & Kugler,Maurice David, 2023. "Long COVID : The Evolution of Household Welfare in Developing Countries during the Pandemic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10300, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10300
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099826402072318968/pdf/IDU07ef9152e081d904fcd09b0c08cd7f9ddb61e.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mahler,Daniel Gerszon & Yonzan,Nishant & Lakner,Christoph, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Inequality and Poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10198, The World Bank.
    2. Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee & Minsung Park & Yongseok Shin, 2021. "Hit Harder, Recover Slower? Unequal Employment Effects of the COVID-19 Shock," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 367-383, October.
    3. Guido Neidhöfer & Nora Lustig & Mariano Tommasi, 2021. "Intergenerational transmission of lockdown consequences: prognosis of the longer-run persistence of COVID-19 in Latin America," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 571-598, September.
    4. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    5. Mr. Jorge A Alvarez & Carlo Pizzinelli, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Informality-driven Recovery: The Case of Colombia's Labor Market," IMF Working Papers 2021/235, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    7. Kugler, Maurice & Viollaz, Mariana & Duque, Daniel & Gaddis, Isis & Newhouse, David & Palacios-Lopez, Amparo & Weber, Michael, 2023. "How did the COVID-19 crisis affect different types of workers in the developing world?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    8. Gottlieb, Charles & Grobovšek, Jan & Poschke, Markus & Saltiel, Fernando, 2021. "Working from home in developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & Jonathan D. Ostry & Pietro Pizzuto, 2022. "Will COVID-19 Have Long-Lasting Effects on Inequality? Evidence from Past Pandemics," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 811-839, December.
    10. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Carletto, Calogero, 2023. "Did a successful fight against COVID-19 come at a cost? Impacts of the pandemic on employment outcomes in Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    11. Bundervoet, Tom & Dávalos, Maria E. & Garcia, Natalia, 2022. "The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on households in developing countries: An overview based on a harmonized dataset of high-frequency surveys," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Aminjonov, Ulugbek & Bargain, Olivier & Bernard, Tanguy, 2023. "Gimme shelter. Social distancing and income support in times of pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    13. Narayan,Ambar & Cojocaru,Alexandru & Agrawal,Sarthak & Bundervoet,Tom & Davalos,Maria Eugenia & Garcia,Natalia & Lakner,Christoph & Mahler,Daniel Gerszon & Montalva Talledo,Veronica Sonia & Ten,Andrey, 2022. "COVID-19 and Economic Inequality : Short-Term Impacts with Long-Term Consequences," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9902, The World Bank.
    14. Köhler, Timothy & Bhorat, Haroon & Hill, Robert & Stanwix, Benjamin, 2023. "Lockdown stringency and employment formality: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 57, pages 1-3.
    15. Altan Aldan & Muhammet Enes Cirakli & Huzeyfe Torun, 2021. "Covid 19 and the Turkish labor market: Heterogeneous effects across demographic groups," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 21(4), pages 155-163.
    16. Egger, Dennis & Miguel, Edward & Warren, Shana S. & Shenoy, Ashish & Collins, Elliott & Karlan, Dean & Parkerson, Doug & Mobarak, A. Mushfiq & Fink, Günther & Udry, Christopher & Walker, Michael & Hau, 2021. "Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(6), pages 1-1.
    17. Raj Chetty & John N Friedman & Michael Stepner & Opportunity Insights Team & Camille Baker & Harvey Barnhard & Matt Bell & Gregory Bruich & Tina Chelidze & Lucas Chu & Westley Cineus & Sebi Devlin-Fol, 2024. "The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 829-889.
    18. Efraim Benmelech & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2020. "The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Matteo Sostero & Santo Milasi & John Hurley & Enrique Fernandez-Macias & Martina Bisello, 2020. "Teleworkability and the COVID-19 crisis: a new digital divide?," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2020-05, Joint Research Centre.
    20. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Edward Miguel, 2022. "The Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 253-285, August.
    21. Ashwini Deshpande, 2020. "Early Effects of Lockdown in India: Gender Gaps in Job Losses and Domestic Work," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 63(1), pages 87-90, October.
    22. Kim,Lydia Y. & Lugo,Maria Ana & Mason,Andrew D. & Uochi,Ikuko, 2021. "Inequality under COVID-19 : Taking Stock of High-Frequency Data for East Asia and the Pacific," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9859, The World Bank.
    23. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2022. "Work that can be done from home: evidence on variation within and across occupations and industries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    24. Stefania Albanesi & Jiyeon Kim, 2021. "Effects of the COVID-19 Recession on the US Labor Market: Occupation, Family, and Gender," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 3-24, Summer.
    25. Palacios-Lopez,Amparo & Newhouse,David Locke & Pape,Utz Johann & Khamis,Melanie & Weber,Michael & Prinz,Daniel, 2021. "The Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries : Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9510, The World Bank.
    26. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Inés Berniell & Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni & Mariana Viollaz, 2023. "The role of children and work-from-home in gender labor market asymmetries: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1191-1214, December.
    2. Kugler, Maurice & Viollaz, Mariana & Duque, Daniel & Gaddis, Isis & Newhouse, David & Palacios-Lopez, Amparo & Weber, Michael, 2023. "How did the COVID-19 crisis affect different types of workers in the developing world?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Alipour, Jean-Victor & Falck, Oliver & Schüller, Simone, 2023. "Germany’s capacity to work from home," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Narayan,Ambar & Cojocaru,Alexandru & Agrawal,Sarthak & Bundervoet,Tom & Davalos,Maria Eugenia & Garcia,Natalia & Lakner,Christoph & Mahler,Daniel Gerszon & Montalva Talledo,Veronica Sonia & Ten,Andrey, 2022. "COVID-19 and Economic Inequality : Short-Term Impacts with Long-Term Consequences," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9902, The World Bank.
    5. Bamieh, Omar & Ziegler, Lennart, 2022. "Are remote work options the new standard? Evidence from vacancy postings during the COVID-19 crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Okubo, Toshihiro, 2022. "Telework in the spread of COVID-19," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Arpit Gupta & Anup Malani & Bartosz Woda, 2021. "Inequality in India Declined During COVID," NBER Working Papers 29597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2022. "Inequalities in the times of a pandemic," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 5-41.
    9. Daniel Garrote Sanchez & Nicolas Gomez Parra & Caglar Ozden & Bob Rijkers & Mariana Viollaz & Hernan Winkler, 2021. "Who on Earth Can Work from Home? [Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 67-100.
    10. Lauren Hoehn-Velasco & Adan Silverio-Murillo & Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar & Jacob Penglase, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 recession on Mexican households: evidence from employment and time use for men, women, and children," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 763-797, September.
    11. Gottlieb Charles & Grobovšek Jan & Poschke Markus & Saltiel Fernando, 2022. "Lockdown Accounting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 197-210, January.
    12. Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J. & Hansen, Stephen & Lambert, Peter John & Sadun, Raffaella & Taska, Bledi, 2023. "Remote work across jobs, companies and space," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121302, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Emil Mihaylov, 2022. "Working from Home in the Netherlands: Looking Inside the Blackbox of Work and Occupations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-096/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Gamber, William & Graham, James & Yadav, Anirudh, 2023. "Stuck at home: Housing demand during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    15. Bergeaud, Antonin & Eyméoud, Jean-Benoît & Garcia, Thomas & Henricot, Dorian, 2023. "Working from home and corporate real estate," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    16. Toshihiro Okubo, 2024. "Non‐routine tasks and ICT tools in telework," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 38(2), pages 177-202, June.
    17. Bennedsen, Morten & Larsen, Birthe & Schmutte, Ian & Scur, Daniela, 2020. "Preserving job matches during the COVID-19 pandemic: firm-level evidence on the role of government aid," GLO Discussion Paper Series 588, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    18. Chakravorty, Bhaskar & Bhatiya, Apurav Yash & Imbert, Clément & Lohnert, Maximilian & Panda, Poonam & Rathelot, Roland, 2023. "Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on India’s rural youth: Evidence from a panel survey and an experiment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    19. Michael Gibbs & Friederike Mengel & Christoph Siemroth, 2023. "Work from Home and Productivity: Evidence from Personnel and Analytics Data on Information Technology Professionals," Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 7-41.
    20. Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu & Manh-Hung Nguyen, 2021. "Modeling optimal quarantines with waning immunity," Discussion Papers 21-10, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10300. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.