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Did a Successful Fight against the COVID-19 Pandemic Come at a Cost? Impacts of the Outbreak on Employment Outcomes in Vietnam

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  • Dang, Hai-Anh H.
  • Nguyen, Cuong Viet

Abstract

Vietnam is widely praised for its successful fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. The country has had an extremely low mortality rate of 35 deaths to date (out of a population of approximately 100 million) and currently has no community transmission. We offer the first study that examines the effects of the COVID-19-induced lockdown on various employment outcomes for Vietnam. We employ difference-in-differences econometric models to estimate the causal effects of the lockdown, using rich individual-level data from the quarterly Labor Force Surveys. We find that the lockdown increases the unemployment rate, the temporary layoff rate, and decreases the quality of employment. It also reduces workers' numbers of working hours and their monthly incomes and wages. Our estimation results remain robust to different model specifications and estimation samples. Further heterogeneity analysis suggests that the effects vary across education levels and occupation sectors but are similar across regions or provinces with different lockdown durations.

Suggested Citation

  • Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Nguyen, Cuong Viet, 2020. "Did a Successful Fight against the COVID-19 Pandemic Come at a Cost? Impacts of the Outbreak on Employment Outcomes in Vietnam," GLO Discussion Paper Series 741, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:741
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Leonardo Bonilla‐Mejía & Jose Pulido & Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Karen L. Pulido‐Mahecha & Francisco Lasso‐Valderrama, 2022. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Colombian labour market: Disentangling the effect of sector‐specific mobility restrictions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 308-357, February.
    2. Kugler, Maurice & Viollaz, Mariana & Duque, Daniel & Gaddis, Isis & Newhouse, David & Palacios-Lopez, Amparo & Weber, Michael, 2023. "How did the COVID-19 crisis affect different types of workers in the developing world?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Gong, Da & Shang, Zhuocheng & Su, Yaqin & Yan, Andong & Zhang, Qi, 2024. "Economic impacts of China's zero-COVID policies," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Rihab Baltaji & Ali Fakih & Nagham Sayour, 2023. "How did COVID‐19 lockdowns affect firms and workers? Evidence from Jordan and Morocco," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 41(6), November.
    5. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Long T. Giang & Minh N. N. Do, 2021. "Building on Vietnam’s Recent COVID-19 Success: A Job-Focused Analysis of Individual Assessments on Their Finance and the Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-21, September.
    6. Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Tarp, Finn, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Labor Supply: New Evidence on Impacts and Mechanisms," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1243, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Brunckhorst, Ben & Cojocaru, Alexandru & Kim, Yeon Soo & Kugler, Maurice, 2024. "Long COVID: The evolution of household welfare in developing countries during the pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    8. Chakravorty, Bhaskar & Bhatiya, Apurav Yash & Imbert, Clément & Lohnert, Maximilian & Panda, Poonam & Rathelot, Roland, 2023. "Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on India’s rural youth: Evidence from a panel survey and an experiment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; employment; income loss; differences-in-differences; Vietnam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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