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When Good Instruments Go Bad

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Abstract

This note examines the instrumental variables method used by Neumark, Zhang, and Ciccarella (2005) to analyze Wal-Mart's effect on retail labor markets, and exposes major flaws in that methodology. Neumark, Zhang, and Ciccarella use an interaction between distance from Wal-Mart's headquarters and time effects to predict Wal-Mart's presence in a county, and find that each Wal-Mart store destroys, on average, approximately 200 retail jobs. These findings are in stark contrast to Basker (2005) who found a small, but positive and statistically significant, effect on jobs. I show that the IV estimates obtained by Neumark, Zhang, and Ciccarella confound Wal-Mart's causal effect with other factors. To illustrate the problem, I show that their methodology implies a large impact of Wal-Mart not only on retail employment but also on county manufacturing employment. Reduced-form estimates of the regressions show statistically and economically indistinguishable effects in counties with and without Wal-Mart presence, implying that other factors are most likely driving the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Emek Basker, 2007. "When Good Instruments Go Bad," Working Papers 0706, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    • Handle: RePEc:umc:wpaper:0706
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Borraz & Juan Dubra & Daniel Ferrés & Leandro Zipitría, 2014. "Supermarket Entry and the Survival of Small Stores," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(1), pages 73-93, February.
    2. Bonanno, Alessandro & Lopez, Rigoberto A., 2009. "Is Wal-Mart a Monopsony? Evidence from Local Labor Markets," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51289, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & C. J. Krizan, 2010. "Mom-and-Pop Meet Big-Box: Complements or Substitutes?," NBER Chapters, in: Cities and Entrepreneurship, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rudholm, Niklas & Li, Yuijao & Kenneth, Carling, 2018. "How Does Big-Box Entry Affect Labor Productivity in Durable Goods Retailing? A Synthetic Control Approach," HUI Working Papers 130, HUI Research.
    5. Emek Basker & Michael Noel, 2009. "The Evolving Food Chain: Competitive Effects of Wal‐Mart's Entry into the Supermarket Industry," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 977-1009, December.
    6. Michael Hicks, 2015. "Does Wal-Mart Cause an Increase in Anti-Poverty Expenditures?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1136-1152, December.
    7. Basker, Emek, 2011. "The Causes and Consequences of Wal-Mart’s Growth," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 110-134.
    8. Charles Courtemanche & Art Carden, 2014. "Competing with Costco and Sam's Club: Warehouse Club Entry and Grocery Prices," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(3), pages 565-585, January.
    9. Finn McGuire & Noemi Kreif & Peter C. Smith, 2021. "The effect of distance on maternal institutional delivery choice: Evidence from Malawi," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 2144-2167, September.
    10. Emek Basker & Javier Miranda, 2014. "Taken by Storm: Business Financing, Survival, and Contagion in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina," Working Papers 1406, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 23 Oct 2014.
    11. Courtemanche, Charles & Carden, Art, 2009. "The skinny on big box retailing: Wal-Mart, warehouse clubs, and obesity," MPRA Paper 25326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Emek Basker & Lucia Foster & Shawn Klimek, 2017. "Customer‐employee substitution: Evidence from gasoline stations," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 876-896, December.
    13. Courtemanche, Charles & Carden, Art, 2011. "Supersizing supercenters? The impact of Walmart Supercenters on body mass index and obesity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 165-181, March.
    14. Fabiano Schivardi & Eliana Viviano, 2011. "Entry Barriers in Retail Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 145-170, March.
    15. Emek Basker & Javier Miranda, 2014. "Taken By Storm: Business Survival In The Aftermath Of Hurricane Katrina," Working Papers 14-20, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    16. Srikanth Paruchuri & Joel A. C. Baum & David Potere, 2009. "The Wal‐Mart Effect: Wave of Destruction or Creative Destruction?," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 85(2), pages 209-236, April.
    17. Sven-Olov Daunfeldt & Oana Mihaescu & Niklas Rudholm, 2022. "The Decline of Small Cities: Increased Competition from External Shopping Malls or Long-Term Negative Trends?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 45(2), pages 225-257, March.
    18. Emek Basker, 2011. "Does Wal‐Mart Sell Inferior Goods?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 973-981, October.
    19. Alessandro Bonanno & Stephan J. Goetz, 2012. "WalMart and Local Economic Development," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 26(4), pages 285-297, November.
    20. Bonanno, Alessandro & Lopez, Rigoberto A., 2012. "Wal-Mart's monopsony power in metro and non-metro labor markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 569-579.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Instrumental Variables; Wal-Mart; Retail Employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

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