IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucl/cepeow/21-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unequal Learning and Labour Market Losses in the Crisis: Consequences for Social Mobility

Author

Listed:
  • Lee Elliot Major

    (Graduate School of Education, University of Exeter; Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics)

  • Andrew Eyles

    (Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics)

  • Stephen Machin

    (Department of Economics and Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics)

Abstract

The unequal learning and labour market losses arising in the UK due to the Covid-19 pandemic are used to assess the consequences for social mobility. Labour market and learning losses have been more pronounced for people from poorer families and this is incorporated into a generalisation of the standard, canonical social mobility model. A calibration shows a significantly higher intergenerational elasticity -- reflecting lower social mobility -- because of the uneven nature of losses by family income, and from dynamic scarring. Results from a randomised information experiment incorporated in a bespoke Social Mobility Survey corroborate this, as participants become more sceptical about the social mobility prospects of the Covid generation when given information about the losses that have occurred in the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee Elliot Major & Andrew Eyles & Stephen Machin, 2021. "Unequal Learning and Labour Market Losses in the Crisis: Consequences for Social Mobility," CEPEO Working Paper Series 21-02, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Mar 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucl:cepeow:21-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec-cepeo.ucl.ac.uk/cepeow/cepeowp21-02.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee Elliot Major & Stephen Machin, 2020. "Covid-19 and social mobility," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 583, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Haroon Chowdry & Claire Crawford & Lorraine Dearden & Alissa Goodman & Anna Vignoles, 2013. "Widening participation in higher education: analysis using linked administrative data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(2), pages 431-457, February.
    3. Michael Baker, 2013. "Industrial actions in schools: strikes and student achievement," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1014-1036, August.
    4. Miles Corak, 2013. "Income Inequality, Equality of Opportunity, and Intergenerational Mobility," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 79-102, Summer.
    5. Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2020. "Educational inequality and public policy preferences: Evidence from representative survey experiments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    7. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    8. Steven G. Rivkin & Jeffrey C. Schiman, 2015. "Instruction Time, Classroom Quality, and Academic Achievement," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(588), pages 425-448, November.
    9. Danny Yagan, 2019. "Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2505-2558.
    10. Adams-Prassl, A. & Boneva, T. & Golin, M & Rauh, C., 2020. "Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock: New Survey Evidence for the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2023, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Agostinelli, Francesco & Doepke, Matthias & Sorrenti, Giuseppe & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2022. "When the great equalizer shuts down: Schools, peers, and parents in pandemic times," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    12. Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2007. "The Impact of Length of the School Year on Student Performance and Earnings: Evidence From the German Short School Years," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1216-1242, October.
    13. Ilyana Kuziemko & Michael I. Norton & Emmanuel Saez & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2015. "How Elastic Are Preferences for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1478-1508, April.
    14. Steven Haider & Gary Solon, 2006. "Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1308-1320, September.
    15. Claudia Hupkau & Ingo Isphording & Stephen Machin & Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, 2020. "Labour market shocks during the Covid-19 pandemic: inequalities and child outcomes," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-015, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2001. "Is Unemployment Really Scarring? Effects of Unemployment Experiences on Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 585-606, November.
    17. Jo Blanden & Paul Gregg & Lindsey Macmillan, 2007. "Accounting for Intergenerational Income Persistence: Noncognitive Skills, Ability and Education," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(519), pages 43-60, March.
    18. Corak,Miles (ed.), 2004. "Generational Income Mobility in North America and Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521827607, October.
    19. Philipp Ager & Katherine Eriksson & Ezra Karger & Peter Nencka & Melissa A. Thomasson, 2024. "School Closures during the 1918 Flu Pandemic," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 266-276, January.
    20. Lee Elliot Major & Stephen Machin, 2018. "Social mobility and its enemies," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 541, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    21. Gary S. Becker & Nigel Tomes, 1994. "Human Capital and the Rise and Fall of Families," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 257-298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Grewenig, Elisabeth & Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger & Zierow, Larissa, 2021. "COVID-19 and educational inequality: How school closures affect low- and high-achieving students," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    23. Nathaniel G. Hilger, 2016. "Parental Job Loss and Children's Long-Term Outcomes: Evidence from 7 Million Fathers' Layoffs," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 247-283, July.
    24. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 626-653, November.
    25. Mari Rege & Kjetil Telle & Mark Votruba, 2011. "Parental Job Loss and Children's School Performance," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(4), pages 1462-1489.
    26. Ariel Kalil & Patrick Wightman, 2011. "Parental Job Loss and Children's Educational Attainment in Black and White Middle‐Class Families," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 92(1), pages 57-78, March.
    27. Gregg, Paul & Tominey, Emma, 2005. "The wage scar from male youth unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 487-509, August.
    28. Joshua Goodman, 2014. "Flaking Out: Student Absences and Snow Days as Disruptions of Instructional Time," NBER Working Papers 20221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Victor Lavy, 2015. "Do Differences in Schools' Instruction Time Explain International Achievement Gaps? Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(588), pages 397-424, November.
    30. Aucejo, Esteban M. & French, Jacob & Ugalde Araya, Maria Paola & Zafar, Basit, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on student experiences and expectations: Evidence from a survey," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    31. Steven G. Rivkin & Jeffrey C. Schiman, 2015. "Instruction Time, Classroom Quality, and Academic Achievement," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(588), pages 425-448, November.
    32. Engzell, Per & Frey, Arun & Verhagen, Mark D., 2020. "Learning Inequality During the Covid-19 Pandemic," SocArXiv ve4z7, Center for Open Science.
    33. Lembke B., 1918. "√ a. p," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 111(1), pages 709-712, February.
    34. David R. Johnson, 2011. "Do Strikes and Work-to-Rule Campaigns Change Elementary School Assessment Results?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 37(4), pages 479-494, December.
    35. Tumino, Alberto, 2015. "The scarring effect of unemployment from the early ‘90s to the Great Recession," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-05, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hupkau, Claudia & Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer & Isphording, Ingo E. & Machin, Stephen, 2023. "Labour Market Shocks and Parental Investments during the Covid-19 Pandemic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Lee Elliot Major & Andrew Eyles & Stephen Machin, 2021. "Learning loss since lockdown: variation across the home nations," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-023, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kamila Cygan-Rehm, 2022. "Lifetime Consequences of Lost Instructional Time in the Classroom: Evidence from Shortened School Years," CESifo Working Paper Series 9892, CESifo.
    2. Nicola Fuchs-Schünde & Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2022. "The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1647-1683.
    3. Hupkau, Claudia & Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer & Isphording, Ingo E. & Machin, Stephen, 2023. "Labour Market Shocks and Parental Investments during the Covid-19 Pandemic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Jo Blanden & Matthias Doepke & Jan Stuhler, 2022. "Education inequality," CEP Discussion Papers dp1849, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Claudia Hupkau & Ingo Isphording & Stephen Machin & Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, 2020. "Labour market shocks during the Covid-19 pandemic: inequalities and child outcomes," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-015, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Andrew Eyles & Stephen Gibbons & Piero Montebruno, 2020. "Covid-19 school shutdowns: what will they do to our children's education?," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-001, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    8. Guido Neidhöfer & Nora Lustig & Mariano Tommasi, 2021. "Intergenerational transmission of lockdown consequences: prognosis of the longer-run persistence of COVID-19 in Latin America," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 571-598, September.
    9. Youngsoo Jang & Minchul Yum, 2024. "Aggregate and Intergenerational Implications of School Closures: A Quantitative Assessment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 90-130, July.
    10. Paul Gregg & Lindsey Macmillan & Claudia Vittori, 2015. "Nonlinear Estimation of Lifetime Intergenerational Economic Mobility and the Role of Education," DoQSS Working Papers 15-03, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London.
    11. Brian Bell & Mihai Codreanu & Stephen Machin, 2020. "What can previous recessions tell us about the Covid-19 downturn?," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Barrios-Fernández, Andrés & Bovini, Giulia, 2021. "It’s time to learn: School institutions and returns to instruction time," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Ismael Sanz & J .D. Tenaa, 2020. "A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Instruction Time and Quality: Lessons for the Covid-19 Outbreak," Working Papers 202032, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    14. Jake Anders & Andy Dickerson & Paul Gregg & Lindsey Macmillan, 2020. "Unemployment: The Coming Storm, Who Gets Hit, Who Gets Hurt, and Policy Remedies," CEPEO Working Paper Series 20-12, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Jul 2020.
    15. Paul Gregg & Lindsey Macmillan & Claudia Vittori, 2019. "Intergenerational income mobility: access to top jobs, the low-pay no-pay cycle and the role of education in a common framework," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 501-528, April.
    16. Oikawa, Masato & Tanaka, Ryuichi & Bessho, Shun-ichiro & Kawamura, Akira & Noguchi, Haruko, 2022. "Do Class Closures Affect Students' Achievements? Heterogeneous Effects of Students' Socioeconomic Backgrounds," IZA Discussion Papers 15751, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Derek Wu, 2020. "Disentangling the Effects of the School Year from the School Day: Evidence from the TIMSS Assessments," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 15(1), pages 104-135, Winter.
    18. Jake Anders & Lindsey Macmillan, 2020. "The unequal scarring effects of a recession on young people's life chances," CEPEO Briefing Note Series 6, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Jun 2020.
    19. Paul Gregg & John Jerrim & Lindsey Macmillan & Nikki Shure, 2017. "Children in jobless households across Europe: Evidence on the association with medium- and long-term outcomes," DoQSS Working Papers 17-05, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London.
    20. Winfree, Paul, 2023. "The long-run effects of temporarily closing schools: Evidence from Virginia, 1870s-1910s," QUCEH Working Paper Series 23-02, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    learning loss; labour market loss; crisis; social mobility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucl:cepeow:21-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Anders (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epucluk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.