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Demographic Changes, Saving, and Current Account in East Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Soyoung Kim

    (Department of Economics, Korea University, Anam-Dong, Sungbuk-Gu, Seoul, 136-701, Republic of Korea)

  • Jong-Wha Lee

    (Department of Economics, Korea University and the Australian National University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the empirical relationships among demographic changes, saving, and current account balances in East Asia. The panel Vector-Auto Regressive (VAR) model shows that an increase in the dependency rate, especially the elderly dependency rate, significantly lowers saving rates and subsequently worsens current account balances. The result implies that the future aging of the population in East Asia would have a significant impact on global capital flows and current account imbalances. (c) 2007 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Soyoung Kim & Jong-Wha Lee, 2007. "Demographic Changes, Saving, and Current Account in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 6(2), pages 22-53, Spring/Su.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:6:y:2007:i:2:p:22-53
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joonkyung Ha & Jong-Wha Lee & Lea Sumulong, 2010. "Rebalancing Growth in the Republic of Korea," Working Papers id:3120, eSocialSciences.
    2. Guonan Ma & Haiwen Zhou, 2009. "China's Large and Rising Net Foreign Asset Position," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(5), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Eswar S. Prasad, 2011. "Rebalancing Growth in Asia," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 27-66, April.
    4. Yuan-Ho Hsu & Hiroshi Yoshida & Fengming Chen, 2022. "The Impacts of Population Aging on China’s Economy," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(1), pages 105-130, January.
    5. Kexu Wu & Zhiwei Tang & Longpeng Zhang, 2022. "Population Aging, Industrial Intelligence and Export Technology Complexity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-24, October.
    6. Aneesha Chitgupi, 2019. "Impact of Age–Structure Transition on India’s Current Account Balance: An Empirical Analysis," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 208-231, May.
    7. Michael Graff & Kam Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, 2012. "Does Demographic Change Affect the Current Account? A Reconsideration," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, November.
    8. Jaehyeok Kim & Hyungwoo Lim & Ha-Hyun Jo, 2020. "Do Aging and Low Fertility Reduce Carbon Emissions in Korea? Evidence from IPAT Augmented EKC Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-15, April.
    9. Andrew K. Rose & Saktiandi Supaat & Jacob Braude, 2009. "Fertility and the real exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 496-518, May.
    10. Ghassan, Hassan & Alhajhoj, Hassan R. & Balli, Faruk, 2018. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 93013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2019.
    11. Tai-Kuang Ho & Kuo-Chun Yeh, 2014. "The Post-Asian Crisis Drop In Investment: The Cases Of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, And Thailand," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 618-638, July.
    12. Markus Brueckner, 2016. "Consumption in Asia," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-645, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
      • Markus Brueckner, 2016. "Consumption in Asia," CAMA Working Papers 2016-65, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Thomas A. Knetsch & Arne J. Nagengast, 2017. "Penny wise and pound foolish? On the income from Germany’s foreign investments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 753-778, November.
    14. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Nickel, Christiane, 2008. "Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence," Working Paper Series 935, European Central Bank.
    15. Kam Ki Tang & Michael Graff & Jie Zhang, "undated". "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 4111, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    16. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert & Wong, Koi Nyen, 2020. "Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Bagnai, Alberto, 2009. "The role of China in global external imbalances: Some further evidence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 508-526, September.
    18. Hassan Belkacem Ghassan & Hassan Rafdan Al-Hajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2019. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling: Evidence from Saudi Economy," Working Papers hal-01742574, HAL.
    19. Guonan Ma & Zhou Haiwen, 2009. "China’s evolving external wealth and rising creditor position," BIS Working Papers 286, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Elena-Mădălina ZAMFIR (AVRAM) & Georgiana BALABAN & Cosmin MARINESCU, 2022. "Economic resilience in Central and Eastern European countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(630), S), pages 5-26, Spring.
    21. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Al-Hajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2018. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling," Papers 1803.11161, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.

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