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Testing for parameter restrictions in a stationary VAR model: A bootstrap alternative

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  • Kim, Jae H.

Abstract

This paper proposes the use of the bootstrap when the system Wald test is employed to test for linear restrictions in a stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The bootstrap test is conducted using the estimated generalised least square estimator for VAR parameters, which considers contemporaneous correlations among the error terms. It is found that the bootstrap test shows little size distortion in small samples. In contrast, the asymptotic Wald test exhibits serious size distortion, severely over-rejecting the true null hypothesis in small samples. The bootstrap test also has desirable power properties, with its power particularly high when the model is near non-stationary and the error terms are highly correlated contemporaneously. As an application, the bootstrap Wald test is employed to test for the predictability of stock return from dividend yield using U.S. data.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Jae H., 2014. "Testing for parameter restrictions in a stationary VAR model: A bootstrap alternative," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 267-273.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:267-273
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.05.022
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    2. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2017. "International stock return predictability: Evidence from new statistical tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-113.
    3. Liew, Ping-Xin & Lim, Kian-Ping & Goh, Kim-Leng, 2018. "Foreign equity flows: Boon or bane to the liquidity of Malaysian stock market?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 161-181.

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