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Climate change and hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide impacts and policy implications

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  • Spalding-Fecher, Randall
  • Joyce, Brian
  • Winkler, Harald

Abstract

This paper examines climate change impact on hydropower will affect the expansion of the regional electricity system, as well as system costs and greenhouse gas emissions. The output from major Zambezi hydropower plants could decline by 10–20% under a drying climate, while wetting of the basin produces only a marginal increase. At a regional level, the increases in electricity generation costs are relatively small (less than 1% over the long term), but could reach 20–30% in the near term for hydro-dependent countries (e.g. Mozambique and Zambia). Because some hydropower could be displaced by coal, regional greenhouse gas emissions could increase by the equivalent of a large coal-fired power station. The risks to regional electricity systems highlight the need for strong cooperative governance arrangements to manage shared water resources in the region, which could be bolstered by recent political initiatives. Beyond the level of individual investments, a policy shift is needed to integrate climate change and upstream development considerations into national and regional electricity planning, supported by relevant tools. In addition, the potential for increased carbon emissions has implications for the commitments of southern African countries under the Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC.

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  • Spalding-Fecher, Randall & Joyce, Brian & Winkler, Harald, 2017. "Climate change and hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide impacts and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 84-97.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:103:y:2017:i:c:p:84-97
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.009
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    6. Bissiri, M. & Moura, P. & Figueiredo, N.C. & Silva, P.P., 2020. "Towards a renewables-based future for West African States: A review of power systems planning approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Epari Ritesh Patro & Teegala Srinivasa Kishore & Ali Torabi Haghighi, 2022. "Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation by Small Hydropower Projects under Clean Development Mechanism in India," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.
    8. Li Sun & Xiaoyu Zhou & Alun Gu, 2022. "Effects of Climate Change on Hydropower Generation in China Based on a WEAP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, May.
    9. Constantino Dário Justo & José Eduardo Tafula & Pedro Moura, 2022. "Planning Sustainable Energy Systems in the Southern African Development Community: A Review of Power Systems Planning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-28, October.
    10. Patro, Epari Ritesh & De Michele, Carlo & Avanzi, Francesco, 2018. "Future perspectives of run-of-the-river hydropower and the impact of glaciers’ shrinkage: The case of Italian Alps," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 699-713.
    11. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    12. Turner, Sean W.D. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Son H. & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, Jae, 2017. "Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2081-2090.
    13. Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Turner, Sean W.D. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Ríos-Ocampo, Juan Pablo & Hejazi, Mohamad I. & Kober, Tom & Álvarez-Espinosa, Andrés C. & Romero-Otalora, Germán D. & van der Zwaan, , 2019. "Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 179-188.
    14. Danyang Gao & Albert S. Chen & Fayyaz Ali Memon, 2024. "A Systematic Review of Methods for Investigating Climate Change Impacts on Water-Energy-Food Nexus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-43, January.
    15. Handayani, Kamia & Filatova, Tatiana & Krozer, Yoram & Anugrah, Pinto, 2020. "Seeking for a climate change mitigation and adaptation nexus: Analysis of a long-term power system expansion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    16. Chang, Jianxia & Wang, Xiaoyu & Li, Yunyun & Wang, Yimin & Zhang, Hongxue, 2018. "Hydropower plant operation rules optimization response to climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 886-897.

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