IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v101y2017icp403-414.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electricity supply and demand scenarios for the Southern African power pool

Author

Listed:
  • Spalding-Fecher, Randall.
  • Senatla, Mamahloko
  • Yamba, Francis
  • Lukwesa, Biness
  • Himunzowa, Grayson
  • Heaps, Charles
  • Chapman, Arthur
  • Mahumane, Gilberto
  • Tembo, Bernard
  • Nyambe, Imasiku

Abstract

The study presents long-term electricity supply and demand scenarios for the twelve countries in the Southern African Power Pool, based on detailed bottom-up demand analysis for all countries and a set of internally consistent development scenarios. Total regional electricity demand and supply increase by eight to fourteen times from 2010 to 2070, with major shifts in both the sectoral composition of demand and the geography of demand, with South Africa becoming a much smaller share. On the supply side, the fuel mix shifts from coal and toward hydro in the medium term, but towards other renewables, such as solar, in the longer term, particularly in the scenarios with the fastest decline in capital costs for renewables. This leads to declining unit carbon dioxide emissions in the more aggressive scenarios, even though total power sector emissions still increase. The unit cost of generation for the entire region is stable across all scenarios. The potential transformation of the supply sector would require a fundamental shift in resource use, grid management and infrastructure development in the region, as well as greater regional integration. This also implies significant institutional capacity development in the SAPP Coordination Centre or similar structures for cooperative management of resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Spalding-Fecher, Randall. & Senatla, Mamahloko & Yamba, Francis & Lukwesa, Biness & Himunzowa, Grayson & Heaps, Charles & Chapman, Arthur & Mahumane, Gilberto & Tembo, Bernard & Nyambe, Imasiku, 2017. "Electricity supply and demand scenarios for the Southern African power pool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 403-414.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:403-414
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.10.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516305845
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.10.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eberhard, Anton & Shkaratan, Maria, 2012. "Powering Africa: Meeting the financing and reform challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-18.
    2. Mark Howells & Sebastian Hermann & Manuel Welsch & Morgan Bazilian & Rebecka Segerström & Thomas Alfstad & Dolf Gielen & Holger Rogner & Guenther Fischer & Harrij van Velthuizen & David Wiberg & Charl, 2013. "Integrated analysis of climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 621-626, July.
    3. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2016. "Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 275-289.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    5. Yang, Chi-Jen & Jackson, Robert B., 2011. "Opportunities and barriers to pumped-hydro energy storage in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 839-844, January.
    6. Danielle Resnick & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2012. "The Political Economy Of Green Growth: Cases From Southern Africa," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 215-228, August.
    7. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    8. Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Robert Lempert & Anthony Janetos, 2014. "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research: Introductory Essay," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 351-361, February.
    9. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237.
    10. Lynn Price & Laurie Michaelis & Ernst Worrell & Marta Khrushch, 1998. "Sectoral Trends and Driving Forces of Global Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 263-319, December.
    11. Bowen, Brian H. & Sparrow, F. T. & Yu, Zuwei, 1999. "Modeling electricity trade policy for the twelve nations of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 183-197, September.
    12. Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. & Keirstead, James & Shah, Nilay & Woods, Jeremy, 2016. "A review of policy analysis purpose and capabilities of electricity system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1531-1544.
    13. Tsang, Eric W. K., 2014. "Old and New," Management and Organization Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 390-390, November.
    14. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    15. Detlef Vuuren & Timothy Carter, 2014. "Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 415-429, February.
    16. Anton Eberhard & Orvika Rosnes & Maria Shkaratan & Haakon Vennemo, 2011. "Africa's Power Infrastructure : Investment, Integration, Efficiency," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2290.
    17. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Spalding-Fecher, Randall & Joyce, Brian & Winkler, Harald, 2017. "Climate change and hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide impacts and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 84-97.
    2. Senatla, Mamahloko & Nchake, Mamello & Taele, Benedict M. & Hapazari, Innocent, 2018. "Electricity capacity expansion plan for Lesotho – implications on energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 622-634.
    3. Joseph Phiri & Karel Malec & Alpo Kapuka & Mansoor Maitah & Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi & Zdeňka Gebeltová & Mwila Bowa & Kamil Maitah, 2021. "Impact of Agriculture and Energy on CO 2 Emissions in Zambia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Padi, Richard Kingsley & Chimphango, Annie, 2021. "Assessing the potential of integrating cassava residues-based bioenergy into national energy mix using long-range Energy Alternatives Planning systems approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Valickova, Petra & Elms, Nicholas, 2021. "The costs of providing access to electricity in selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    6. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2019. "Expanding versus greening? Long-term energy and emission transitions in Mozambique," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 145-156.
    7. Francesco Pasanisi & Gaia Righini & Massimo D’Isidoro & Lina Vitali & Gino Briganti & Sergio Grauso & Lorenzo Moretti & Carlo Tebano & Gabriele Zanini & Mabafokeng Mahahabisa & Mosuoe Letuma & Muso Ra, 2021. "A Cooperation Project in Lesotho: Renewable Energy Potential Maps Embedded in a WebGIS Tool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-26, September.
    8. C. Winkler & H. Heinrichs & S. Ishmam & B. Bayat & A. Lahnaoui & S. Agbo & E. U. Pe~na Sanchez & D. Franzmann & N. Oijeabou & C. Koerner & Y. Michael & B. Oloruntoba & C. Montzka & H. Vereecken & H. H, 2024. "Participatory Mapping of Local Green Hydrogen Cost-Potentials in Sub-Saharan Africa," Papers 2408.10184, arXiv.org.
    9. Constantino Dário Justo & José Eduardo Tafula & Pedro Moura, 2022. "Planning Sustainable Energy Systems in the Southern African Development Community: A Review of Power Systems Planning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-28, October.
    10. Jinchai Lin & Kaiwei Zhu & Zhen Liu & Jenny Lieu & Xianchun Tan, 2019. "Study on A Simple Model to Forecast the Electricity Demand under China’s New Normal Situation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-28, June.
    11. Mohammad Nure Alam, 2021. "Accessing the Effect of Renewables on the Wholesale Power Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 341-360.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Spalding-Fecher, Randall & Joyce, Brian & Winkler, Harald, 2017. "Climate change and hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide impacts and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 84-97.
    2. Miho Kamei & Alessio Mastrucci & Bas J. van Ruijven, 2021. "A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun & Upmanu Lall & Zhi-Fu Mi & Jun He & Yi-Ming Wei, 2016. "China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 169-181, November.
    4. Alison Rothwell & Brad Ridoutt & William Bellotti, 2016. "Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Guillaume Rohat & Johannes Flacke & Hy Dao & Martin Maarseveen, 2018. "Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 619-636, December.
    6. Giovanni Litt & Mattia Bertin & Vittore Negretto & Francesco Musco, 2022. "Reinterpreting Spatial Planning Cultures to Define Local Adaptation Cultures: A Methodology from the Central Veneto Region Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-31, June.
    7. Vanessa J. Schweizer, 2020. "Reflections on cross-impact balances, a systematic method constructing global socio-technical scenarios for climate change research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1705-1722, October.
    8. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Daenzer, Katie & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Kober, Tom & Paltsev, Sergey & Beach, Robert H. & Calderon, Silvia Liliana & Calvin, Kate & Labriet, Maryse & Kitous, Alban & Lucena, Andr, 2016. "Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 499-512.
    9. Schulhof, Vera & van Vuuren, Detlef & Kirchherr, Julian, 2022. "The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): What Will it Look Like in the Future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Céline Guivarch & Julie Rozenberg & Vanessa Schweizer, 2016. "The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database," Post-Print halshs-01292901, HAL.
    11. Samuel Sellers & Kristie L. Ebi, 2017. "Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Thomas Winkler & Wilfried Winiwarter, 2016. "Greenhouse gas scenarios for Austria: a comparison of different approaches to emission trends," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(8), pages 1181-1196, December.
    13. Hanna, Richard & Gross, Robert, 2021. "How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    14. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Solberg, Birger & Moiseyev, Alex & Hansen, Jon Øvrum & Horn, Svein Jarle & Øverland, Margareth, 2021. "Wood for food: Economic impacts of sustainable use of forest biomass for salmon feed production in Norway," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    16. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    17. Speers, Ann E. & Besedin, Elena Y. & Palardy, James E. & Moore, Chris, 2016. "Impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reef fisheries: An integrated ecological–economic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 33-43.
    18. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    19. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    20. Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:403-414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.