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Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

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  • Lee, Yoong Hon
  • Parinduri, Rasyad

Abstract

We examine whether the three-point rule—the increase in rewards for a win from two- to three points that FIFA adopted in 1995—makes Bundesliga games become more exciting. Using regression discontinuity design as the empirical strategy, we do not find evidence that the three-point rule makes games more decisive, increases the number of goals, or decreases goal differences. We only find some evidence that the three-point rule increases the second-half goals of losing first-half teams. Overall, our results suggest that, in the case of Bundesliga games, the three-point rule does not work as FIFA intended.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Yoong Hon & Parinduri, Rasyad, 2013. "Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," MPRA Paper 48467, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48467
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    Cited by:

    1. Dilger, Alexander & Froböse, Gerrit, 2018. "Effects of the three-point rule in German amateur football," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 3/2018, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
    2. Rasyad A Parinduri & Yoong Hon Lee & Kung Ming Tiong, 2019. "The effects of bigger rewards in individual tournaments on efforts and risk taking: evidence from chess," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 979-995.
    3. Richard Duhautois & Romain Eyssautier, 2016. "La victoire à trois points dans le football a-t-elle rendu les équipes plus offensives ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 67(6), pages 1245-1254.
    4. Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2021. "The Effect of League Design on Spectator Attendance: A Regression Discontinuity Design Approach," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 514-545, June.
    5. Jan C. van Ours, 2024. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Long-Term Football Rivalries," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-031/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan & Patrick Massey, 2020. "Professional Rugby on the Celtic Fringe," Working Papers 202003, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    7. Scarf, Phil & Parma, Rishikesh & McHale, Ian, 2019. "On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport: The case of international rugby union," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(2), pages 721-730.
    8. Gebrenegus Ghilagaber & Parfait Munezero, 2020. "Bayesian change-point modelling of the effects of 3-points-for-a-win rule in football," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 248-264, January.
    9. J. James Reade & Jan C. van Ours, 2024. "Consumer Perceptions Matter: A Case Study of an Anomaly in English Football," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2024-03, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    10. Vincenzo Alfano & Lorenzo Cicatiello & Giuseppe Lucio Gaeta & Michele Gallo & Francesca Rotondo, 2021. "Three is a Magic Number: Evidence on the Effects of the Application of the Three-Point Rule in Italy’s Serie A," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 329-356, April.
    11. Stefan Wagner, 2010. "Managerial succession and organizational performance-evidence from the German Soccer League," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 415-430.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    three-point rule; soccer; regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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