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Non-Transitive Patterns in Long-Term Football Rivalries

Author

Listed:
  • Jan C. van Ours

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

The phenomenon of non-transitivity in outcomes, typically observed in non-effort games with predetermined probabilities and immediate clarity, extends to team- based, time-consuming games requiring effort that unfold over a long period of time. This study explores this aspect through an empirical analysis of professional football matches in the Netherlands involving three prominent teams: Feyenoord, Ajax, and PSV. Contrary to conventional expectations, the results reveal a non- transitive pattern over more than three decades, indicating that Feyenoord is more likely to triumph over PSV, PSV over Ajax, and Ajax over Feyenoord than the reverse scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan C. van Ours, 2024. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Long-Term Football Rivalries," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-031/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240031
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    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/24031.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-transitive match outcomes; football; bookmakers; Elo-rating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

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