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Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’

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  • Nicholas Gailey
  • Wolfgang Lutz

Abstract

In 2016, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) agreed to form a partnership, establishing the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM). The work presented here summarises the first results published by CEPAM. The results reveal clear momentum towards population ageing, and how migration has limited ability to influence the population structure of the EU, especially in the long-run. On the other hand, boosting labour force participation can nullify expected rises in the dependency ratio from population ageing. Globally, the findings show the future of population growth and socio-economic development will be determined by the expansion of education, particularly among girls in Africa. Scenarios of either rapid or stalled development illustrate a large range of possible futures for world population by 2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Gailey & Wolfgang Lutz, 2018. "Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 221-234.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:16:y:2018:i:1:p:221-234
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    1. Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
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    3. Michael A. Clemens & Satish Chand, 2023. "Labour Mobility With Vocational Skill: Australian Demand and Pacific Supply," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(4), pages 462-486, December.
    4. Phoebe Koundouri & Georgios I. Papayiannis & Achilleas Vassilopoulos & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2023. "Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia," Papers 2312.04428, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    5. Yu Sang Chang & Moon Jung Kim & Su Min Kim & Sung Jun Jo, 2023. "The Offsetting Impact of Dependency and Urbanization on Mean Years of Schooling: A Scaling Analysis of 97 Countries," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, April.
    6. Heidland, Tobias & Jannsen, Nils & Groll, Dominik & Kalweit, René & Boockmann, Bernhard, 2021. "Analyse und Prognose von Migrationsbewegungen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 34, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Phoebe Koundouri & Georgios I. Papayiannis & Achilleas Vassilopoulos & Athanasios Yannacopoulos, 2022. "A general framework for the generation of probabilistic socioeconomic scenarios and risk quantification concerning food security with application in the Upper Nile river basin," DEOS Working Papers 2203, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    8. Diego Alburez‐Gutierrez & Carl Mason & Emilio Zagheni, 2021. "The “Sandwich Generation” Revisited: Global Demographic Drivers of Care Time Demands," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 997-1023, December.
    9. Rentería, Elisenda & Souto, Guadalupe & Istenič, Tanja & Sambt, Jože, 2024. "Generational economic dependency in aging Europe: Contribution of education and population changes," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    10. Oosthuizen, Morné, 2024. "Education and South Africa’s waning demographic dividend," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).

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