Urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios for avoiding increments of global warming

Urban areas have key roles in climate mitigation, including increasing renewable energy penetration in smart energy systems. The potential of urban areas in limiting global warming, however, is not quantified. This research work develops a new framework to analyse urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios with coupling to the transient climate response to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. Two new parameters that quantify contributions to and avoidance of increments of global warming from urban areas are formulated and applied to twelve scenario combinations. The results for 465 urban areas indicate that a green-growth scenario with lower ambition in reducing urban emissions can lead up to a 0.13 °C additional increment of global warming in 2050 based on the best estimate of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. Those of the most ambitious urban emissions scenario with green-growth and renewable energy are limited to 0.06 °C. When combined with the most ambitious land use efficiency scenario for 135 urban areas, it is possible to avoid more than double or 2.09 times additional increments of global warming in comparison to other integrated urban scenarios. The mean and 5–95th percentile range of the results are compared based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Informing on the urgency to ensure ambitious mitigation action in urban areas can support a climate future that remains within critical thresholds and tipping elements of the planet.