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The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the U.S

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  • Alberto Alesina

Abstract

Current surpluses in the U.S. have been achieved by a combination of a strong economy, low interest rates, and sharp cuts in defence spending. These surpluses follow a period (the eighties) of rather exceptional budget deficits. This paper investigates the origin, size, and expected future patterns of the U.S. budget balance. It discusses how different political forces may generate alternative fiscal scenarios for the U.S. in the next decade.

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  • Alberto Alesina, 2000. "The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 7496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7496
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    Cited by:

    1. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," Working Papers halshs-00786009, HAL.
    2. Andreea STOIAN, 2011. "A Retrospective Approach on Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for Overindebted European Countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 183-188.
    3. Germinal G. Van, 2022. "The Theory of Efficient Growth," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 65(2), pages 68-91.
    4. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    5. David Cronin, 2020. "Are Member States’ Budgetary Policies Adhering to the EU Fiscal Rules?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 66(1), pages 47-64.
    6. Schmidt Christoph M. & Schmidt Torsten, 2017. "Das Wie entscheidet: Haushaltsüberschüsse sinnvoll verwenden," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 37-49, April.
    7. Ondrej Schneider, 2019. "Partisan Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 8014, CESifo.
    8. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2011. "The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply," Working Papers halshs-00613161, HAL.
    9. Francesca Caselli & Mr. Philippe Wingender, 2018. "Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 2018/182, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00786009, HAL.
    11. Andreea Stoian & Laura Obreja Brașoveanu & Iulian Viorel Brașoveanu & Bogdan Dumitrescu, 2018. "A Framework to Assess Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for European Union Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    12. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Corinne Prost & Cédric Audenis, 2003. "Finances publiques et cycle économique : une autre approche," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 157(1), pages 1-12.
    14. Caselli, Francesca & Wingender, Philippe, 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of fiscal rules: The Maastricht fiscal criterion and the counterfactual distribution of government deficits✰," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Xavier Debrun & Radhicka Kapoor, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability: New Evidence and Policy Implications," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 48(2), pages 69-101, Diciembre.
    16. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2011. "The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply," Working Papers 201122, CERDI.
    17. Haffert, Lukas, 2016. "Permanent budget surpluses as a fiscal regime," MPIfG Discussion Paper 16/1, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    18. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "A quarter of a century of fiscal responsibility: The origins and evolution of fiscal policy governance and institutional arrangements in New Zealand, 1994 to 2018," Working Paper Series 7693, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    19. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," Working Papers 201301, CERDI.
    20. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2001. "Political Data for Applied Political Economy Research," Working Papers 43, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2001.
    21. David Cronin, 2020. "Are Member States’ Budgetary Policies Adhering to the EU Fiscal Rules?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 66(1), pages 47-64.

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