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Quantifying the Current U.S. Fiscal Imbalance

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  • Auerbach, Alan J.

Abstract

Points to the growth of three programs (Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security) as the source of the projected long-term U.S. fiscal imbalance. Evaluates the effect of policy changes on this imbalance, and finds that the long-run imbalance will persist and waiting to adopt policy changes will increase the size of the required annual primary deficit reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Auerbach, Alan J., 1997. "Quantifying the Current U.S. Fiscal Imbalance," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 50(3), pages 387-398, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:50:y:1997:i:3:p:387-98
    DOI: 10.1086/NTJ41789270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald Lee & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 1998. "Stochastic Forecasts for Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: Frontiers in the Economics of Aging, pages 393-428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Metelli & Kevin Pallara, 2020. "Fiscal space and the size of the fiscal multiplier," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1293, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Magazzino, Cosimo & Brady, Gordon L. & Forte, Francesco, 2019. "A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    3. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
    4. Dagney Faulk & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Sally Wallace, 2007. "Using Human-Capital Theory to Establish a Potential-Income Tax," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 63(3), pages 415-435, September.
    5. Sally Wallace, 2010. "Can Georgia Move from Income Tax to Consumption Tax?," Chapters, in: Sally Wallace (ed.), State and Local Fiscal Policy, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury.
    7. Fuhmei Wang, 2009. "The effects of foreign borrowing policies on economic growth: success or failure?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 273-284.
    8. Gemma Abío & Eduard Berenguer & Holger Bonin & Joan Gil & Concepció Patxot, 2003. "Is the deficit under control? A generational accounting perspective on fiscal policy and labour market trends in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(2), pages 309-341, May.
    9. Holger Bonin & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2014. "Cyclically‐Neutral Generational Accounting," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 117-137, June.
    10. Muriel Bouchet, 2003. "The sustainability of the private sector pension system from a long-term perspective: the case of Luxembourg," BCL working papers 6, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    11. Kevin J. Stiroh, 1998. "Long‐Run Growth Projections And The Aggregate Production Function: A Survey Of Models Used By The U.S. Government," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(4), pages 467-479, October.
    12. Robert A. Eisenbeis & George G. Kaufman, 2016. "Not All Financial Crises Are Alike!," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(1), pages 1-31, March.
    13. Alberto Alesina, 2000. "The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 3-19, Summer.
    14. Alberto Alesina, 2000. "The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 7496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Fuhmei Wang, 2009. "The effects of foreign borrowing policies on economic growth: success or failure?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 273-284.

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    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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