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Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability: New Evidence and Policy Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Debrun

    (International Monetary Fund (Washington DC., United States))

  • Radhicka Kapoor

    (London School of Economics (London, United Kingdon))

Abstract

The paper revisits the empirical link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability. Our basic presumption is that by definition, the operation of automatic stabilizers should always and everywhere contribute to greater macroeconomic stability (output and consumption). However, two stylized facts seem at odds with that prediction. First, the moderating effect of automatic stabilizers appears to have weakened in advanced economies between the mid-1990s and 2006 (the end of our main sample). Second, automatic stabilizers do not seem to be effective in developing economies. Our analysis addresses these apparent puzzles by accounting for the government’s ambivalent role as a shock absorber and a shock inducer for determinants of macroeconomic volatility over time. Results provide strong support for the view that fiscal stabilization operates mainly through automatic stabilizers. / Este documento retoma el estudio de la relación empírica entre la políticafiscal y la estabilidad macroeconómica. Nuestro supuesto básico es que, pordefinición, el funcionamiento de los estabilizadores automáticas deberíasiempre y en todas partes contribuir a una mayor estabilidad macroeconómica(producción y consumo). Sin embargo, dos hechos estilizados parecen estar endesacuerdo con esa predicción. En primer lugar, el efecto moderador de losestabilizadores automáticos parece haberse debilitado en las economíasavanzadas entre los años 1990 y 2006. En segundo lugar, los estabilizadoresautomáticos no parecen ser eficaces en las economías en desarrollo. Nuestroanálisis aborda estos enigmas aparentes por medio del análisis del papelambivalente del gobierno como un amortiguador e inductor de shocks sobrelos determinantes de la volatilidad macroeconómica en el tiempo. Losresultados proporcionan un fuerte apoyo a la opinión de que la estabilizaciónfiscal opera principalmente a través de los estabilizadores automáticos.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Debrun & Radhicka Kapoor, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability: New Evidence and Policy Implications," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 48(2), pages 69-101, Diciembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ief:reveye:v:48:y:2010:i:2:p:69-101
    DOI: 10.55444/2451.7321.2010.v48.n2.4107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    3. Květa Kubátová & Aneta Borůvková, 2014. "Changes in Tax Mixes of European Union Countries in Crisis [Změny daňových mixů zemí Evropské unie v důsledku krize]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 87-104.
    4. Hossein Askari & Abbas Mirakhor, 2014. "Risk sharing, public policy and the contribution of Islamic finance," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 67(271), pages 345-379.
    5. Larch, Martin & Orseau, Eloïse & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2021. "Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Barbaros Güneri & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2021. "Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, July.
    7. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2021. "Output-volatility reducing effects of automatic stabilizers: Policy implications for EMU member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1388-1414.
    8. Kashif Munir & Nimra Riaz, 2019. "Fiscal Policy and Macroecomonic Stability in South Asian Countries," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 228(1), pages 13-33, March.
    9. Liu, Kai & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2015. "Short- and Long-Run Fiscal Elasticities: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 65950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Muinelo-Gallo, Leonel, 2022. "Business cycles and redistribution: The role of government quality," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    11. Hossein Askari, 2015. "Severe Financial Crises and Fundamental Reforms: The Benefits of Risk-Sharing الأزمات المالية الخطيرة والإصلاحات الأساسية: فوائد تقاسم المخاطر," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 28(1), pages 93-128, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic stabilization; fiscal policy; fiscal stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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