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Estimating the Direct and Indirect Effects of Major Education Reforms

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  • Michael Gilraine
  • Hugh Macartney
  • Robert McMillan

Abstract

We propose an approach for credibly estimating indirect sorting effects of major education reforms and placing them alongside the reforms' direct and persistent effects for the first time. Applying our approach to California's state-wide class size reduction program, we estimate a large positive direct effect of smaller classes on test scores and an even larger indirect effect due to demographic changes as private school students switch into public schools; both effects also persist. Accounting for sorting using these estimates raises the program's benefit-cost ratio significantly. Further, our analysis indicates that indirect sorting is likely relevant in policy evaluations more generally.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Gilraine & Hugh Macartney & Robert McMillan, 2018. "Estimating the Direct and Indirect Effects of Major Education Reforms," NBER Working Papers 24191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24191
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    Cited by:

    1. Omar Al-Ubaydli & John List & Claire Mackevicius & Min Sok Lee & Dana Suskind, 2019. "How Can Experiments Play a Greater Role in Public Policy? 12 Proposals from an Economic Model of Scaling," Artefactual Field Experiments 00679, The Field Experiments Website.
    2. Justman, Moshe, 2018. "Randomized controlled trials informing public policy: Lessons from project STAR and class size reduction," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 167-174.
    3. Marie Connolly & Catherine Haeck, 2018. "Le lien entre la taille des classes et les compétences cognitives et non cognitives," CIRANO Project Reports 2018rp-18, CIRANO.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid

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