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Populism and the Return of the “Paranoid Style”: Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance against Elite Betrayal

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  • Rafael Di Tella
  • Julio J. Rotemberg

Abstract

We present a simple model of populism as the rejection of “disloyal” leaders. We show that adding the assumption that people are worse off when they experience low income as a result of leader betrayal (than when it is the result of bad luck) to a simple voter choice model yields a preference for incompetent leaders. These deliver worse material outcomes in general, but they reduce the feelings of betrayal during bad times. Some evidence consistent with our model is gathered from the Trump-Clinton 2016 election: on average, subjects primed with the importance of competence in policymaking decrease their support for Trump, the candidate who scores lower on competence in our survey. But two groups respond to the treatment with a large (between 5 and 7 percentage points) increase in their support for Donald Trump: those living in rural areas and those that are low educated, white and living in urban and suburban areas.

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  • Rafael Di Tella & Julio J. Rotemberg, 2016. "Populism and the Return of the “Paranoid Style”: Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance against Elite Betrayal," NBER Working Papers 22975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22975
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    1. Gian Italo Bischi & Federico Favaretto & Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera, 2022. "Long-term causes of populism," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 349-377, January.
    2. Nobuhiro Mizuno & Ryosuke Okazawa, 2022. "Why do voters elect less qualified candidates?," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 34(3), pages 443-477, July.
    3. Tito Boeri & Prachi Mishra & Chris Papageorgiou & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2021. "Populism and Civil Society," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 863-895, October.
    4. Massimo Morelli & Antonio Nicolò & Paolo Roberti, 2021. "A Commitment Theory of Populism," CESifo Working Paper Series 9473, CESifo.
    5. Gavresi, Despina & Litina, Anastasia, 2023. "Past exposure to macroeconomic shocks and populist attitudes in Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 989-1010.
    6. Eugenio Levi & Isabelle Sin & Steven Stillman, 2021. "Understanding the Origins of Populist Political Parties and the Role of External Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9036, CESifo.
    7. Despina Gavresi & Anastasia Litina, 2024. "Population Aging and the Rise of Populism in Europe," Discussion Paper Series 2024_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jun 2024.
    8. Nowakowski, Adam, 2021. "Do unhappy citizens vote for populism?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Carlo Altomonte & Gloria Gennaro & Francesco Passarelli, 2019. "Collective Emotions and Protest Vote," CESifo Working Paper Series 7463, CESifo.
    10. Peter Buisseret & Richard Van Weelden, 2020. "Crashing the Party? Elites, Outsiders, and Elections," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(2), pages 356-370, April.
    11. Despina Gavresi & Andreas Irmen & Anastasia Litina, 2023. "Population Aging and the Rise of Populist Attitudes in Europe," DEM Discussion Paper Series 23-10, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    12. Paul Vertier, 2018. "The democratic challenges of electoral representation and populism : an empirical approach [Les défis démocratiques de la représentation électorale et du populisme : une approche empirique]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03419534, HAL.
    13. Jeffrey, Karen, 2021. "Automation and the future of work: How rhetoric shapes the response in policy preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 417-433.
    14. Razin, Ronny & Levy, Gilat & Young, Alwyn, 2022. "Misspecified politics and the recurrence of populism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112544, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Federico Favaretto & Donato Masciandaro, 2022. "Populism, financial crises and banking policies: Economics and psychology," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 441-464, September.
    16. Benoit Crutzen & Dana Sisak & Otto Swank, 2020. "Left Behind Voters, Anti-Elitism and Popular Will," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-055/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Marcus Noland, 2020. "Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Deplorables, and the First White President," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 31-50, January.
    18. Morelli, Massimo & Gennaro, Gloria & Lecce, Giampaolo, 2021. "Mobilization and the Strategy of Populism Theory and Evidence from the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 15686, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Arnstein Aassve & Gianmarco Daniele & Marco Le Moglie, 2018. "Never Forget the First Time: The Persistent Effects of Corruption and the Rise of Populism in Italy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1896, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    20. Foerster, Manuel & Voss, Achim, 2022. "Believe me, I am ignorant, but not biased," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    21. Chen, Shuai, 2020. "Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism: Evidence from Two Quasi-Natural Experiments in the United States," GLO Discussion Paper Series 652, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    22. Chen, Shuai, 2023. "Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism," IZA Discussion Papers 16642, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. Chen, Shuai, 2019. "Marriage, minorities, and mass movements," Other publications TiSEM 9cb1b11d-12e6-46a8-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    24. Estache, Antonio & Foucart, Renaud, 2018. "The scope and limits of accounting and judicial courts intervention in inefficient public procurement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 95-106.

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    • D64 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Altruism; Philanthropy; Intergenerational Transfers
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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