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Social security in an analytically tractable overlapping generations model with aggregate and idiosyncratic risk

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  • Harenberg, Daniel
  • Ludwig, Alexander

Abstract

When markets are incomplete, social security can partially insure against idiosyncratic and aggregate risks. We incorporate both risks into an analytically tractable model with two overlapping generations. We derive the equilibrium dynamics in closed form and show that joint presence of both risks leads to over-proportional risk exposure for households. This implies that the whole benefit from insurance through social security is greater than the sum of the benefits from insurance against each of the two risks in isolation. We measure this through interaction effects which appear even though the two risks are orthogonal by construction. While the interactions unambiguously increase the welfare benefits from insurance, they can in- or decrease the welfare costs from crowding out of capital formation. The net effect depends on the relative strengths of the opposing forces.

Suggested Citation

  • Harenberg, Daniel & Ludwig, Alexander, 2015. "Social security in an analytically tractable overlapping generations model with aggregate and idiosyncratic risk," SAFE Working Paper Series 71, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:71
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2515696
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    2. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander & Villalvazo, Sergio, 2021. "Optimal taxes on capital in the OLG model with uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    3. Jaimes, Richard & Westerhout, Ed, 2023. "Optimal policies in an ageing society," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    4. Anna Batyra & David de la Croix & Olivier Pierrard & Henri Sneessens, 2016. "Structural changes in the labor market and the rise of early retirement in Europe," DEM Discussion Paper Series 16-13, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    5. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, 2019. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, And The Welfare Effects Of Social Security," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(2), pages 661-692, May.
    6. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, "undated". "Social Security and the Interactions Between Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk," Working Papers ETH-RC-14-002, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    7. James Staveley-O'Carroll & Olena Staveley-O'Carroll, 2019. "International Welfare Spillovers of National Pension Schemes," Working Papers 1903, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    8. Jaimes, Richard, 2023. "Does idiosyncratic risk matter for climate policy?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 353-367, August.
    9. Shantanu Bagchi, 2024. "Business Cycles and Public Pensions: Aggregate Risk and Social Security in the United States," Working Papers 2024-11, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2024.
    10. Staveley-O’Carroll James & Staveley-O’Carroll Olena M., 2021. "International Welfare Spillovers of National Pension Schemes," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 363-397, January.
    11. Bommier, Antoine & Harenberg, Daniel & Le Grand, François, 2017. "Household Finance and the Value of Life," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168189, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna & Komada, Oliwia, 2021. "Efficiency versus Insurance: Capital Income Taxation and Privatizing Social Security," IZA Discussion Papers 14805, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    social security; idiosyncratic risk; aggregate risk; welfare; insurance; crowding out;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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