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A cohort approach to project the labour participation rate in Malta

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  • Abigail Marie Rapa

Abstract

Since Malta’s accession to the European Union, its labour market has undergone substantial shifts which have resulted in an increase in activity among the working age population. Using a cohort model of labour force participation this note assesses developments in the participation rate of males and females since 2000 and forecasts the overall participation rate for the medium term while taking gender and age-period-cohort factors into account. Using a dynamic cohort approach and under the assumption of no further policy change, the author estimates that the participation rate of those aged between 15 and 64 will continue to increase, reaching 80.4% in 2030. The continuous influx of foreign migrant workers and enacted pension reforms are estimated to boost the participation rate by 4.1 percentage points by 2030, which is equivalent to half of the projected increase in the participation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Abigail Marie Rapa, "undated". "A cohort approach to project the labour participation rate in Malta," CBM Policy Papers PP/04/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlt:ppaper:0419
    as

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    File URL: https://www.centralbankmalta.org/file.aspx?f=72432
    File Function: First version, 2019
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Browning & Ian Crawford & Marike Knoef, 2012. "The age-period cohort problem: set identification and point identification," CeMMAP working papers 02/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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