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Einfluss von Bildungsexpansion und Pensionsreformen auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung. Prognose der Erwerbsquote und des Arbeitskräfteangebotes bis 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Horvath
  • Helmut Mahringer

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Die österreichische Bevölkerung wird in den nächsten Jahrzehnten weiter wachsen. Gleichzeitig wird aber die Zahl der Personen im erwerbsfähigen Alter bis 2030 sinken. Wieweit sich diese demographische Veränderung im tatsächlichen Arbeitskräfteangebot (Summe aus Beschäftigten und Arbeitslosen) spiegeln wird, hängt wesentlich vom Erwerbsverhalten ab. Wie die Analyse der Entwicklung der Erwerbsquote zeigt, wirken sich die Veränderungen der Ausbildungsstruktur, langfristige Trends im Erwerbsverhalten und die Verschärfung der Pensionszugangsbestimmungen deutlich erhöhend auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung aus. Bis 2030 ist deshalb kaum ein Rückgang sondern eine mäßige Zunahme des Arbeitskräfteangebotes zu erwarten.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer, 2014. "Einfluss von Bildungsexpansion und Pensionsreformen auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung. Prognose der Erwerbsquote und des Arbeitskräfteangebotes bis 2030," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(6), pages 411-426, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2014:i:6:p:411-426
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    References listed on IDEAS

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