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The fertility transition in South Africa: A retrospective panel data analysis

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  • Rulof P Burger
  • Ronelle Burger
  • Laura Rossouw

Abstract

Since 1960 South Africa has seen a steep fall in fertility levels and currently its total fertility rate is the lowest on the African continent. Given the high prevailing levels of fertility in African countries, a better understanding of the factors behind the fertility transition will be valuable not only for South Africa, but also more widely for other African countries. This paper uses the National Income Dynamics Study data to construct a retrospective panel to investigate reasons for the decline in fertility. The analysis attributes a large share of the observed fertility decline across birth cohorts to improvements in education levels and the lower prevalence of marriage. However, a considerable segment of the transition is ascribed to unobservables. These may include HIV/AIDS, the increased use of contraceptives and changes in both intra-household relationships and the social role of women.

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  • Rulof P Burger & Ronelle Burger & Laura Rossouw, 2012. "The fertility transition in South Africa: A retrospective panel data analysis," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 738-755, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:deveza:v:29:y:2012:i:5:p:738-755
    DOI: 10.1080/0376835X.2012.731779
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    2. J. Fourie, 2018. "Cliometrics in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Guadalupe Aguilera & Kim Korinek, 2020. "Immigrant Fertility in Comparative Perspective: South Africa and the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 297-322, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure

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