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Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Url
  • Rob J Hyndman
  • Alexander Dokumentov

Abstract

Many countries have implemented social programs providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programs often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets, long-term forecasts are an increasingly important instrument to monitor the budgetary consequences of social programs. The expected development of the labour force is a key input to these forecasts. We Produce forecasts of age-specific labour market participation rates, combining a functional data approach with information on education, marital status and other exogenous variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Url & Rob J Hyndman & Alexander Dokumentov, 2016. "Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2016-3
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    File URL: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp03-16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url, 2016. "Austria 2025 – The Effect of Human Capital Accumulation on Output Growth," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59175.
    2. Thomas Url & Rob J. Hyndman & Alexander Dokumentov, 2016. "Long-term Forecasts of Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates with Functional Data Models," WIFO Working Papers 510, WIFO.
    3. Karl Aiginger & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2016. "Österreich 2025 – Eine Agenda für mehr Dynamik, sozialen Ausgleich und ökologische Nachhaltigkeit. Fortschrittsbericht," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58885.
    4. Bækgaard, Hans & Helsø, Anne-Line Koch, 2023. "Labour Force Participation and Education," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2023(1), pages 1-23.
    5. Thomas Url, 2016. "Langfristige Prognose des Aufwands für Langzeitpflege," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58844.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecast; labour supply; age-profile; smoothing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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