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Beveridgean Unemployment Gap

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  • Michaillat, Pascal
  • Saez, Emmanuel

Abstract

This paper measures the unemployment gap (the difference between actual and efficient unemployment rates) using the Beveridge curve (the negative relationship between unemployment and job vacancies). We express the unemployment gap as a function of current unemployment and vacancy rates, and three sufficient statistics: elasticity of the Beveridge curve, recruiting cost, and nonpecuniary value of unemployment. In the United States, we find that the efficient unemployment rate started around 3% in the 1950s, steadily climbed to almost 6% in the 1980s, fell just below 4% in the early 1990s, and remained at that level until 2019. These variations are caused by changes in the level and elasticity of the Beveridge curve. Hence, the US unemployment gap is almost always positive and highly countercyclical---indicating that the labor market tends to be inefficiently slack, especially in slumps.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaillat, Pascal & Saez, Emmanuel, 2019. "Beveridgean Unemployment Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 14132, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Hie Joo Ahn & Leland D. Crane, 2020. "Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting," Papers 2003.00033, arXiv.org.
    3. Juan C. Córdoba & Anni T. Isojärvi & Haoran Li, 2023. "Endogenous Bargaining Power and Declining Labor Compensation Share," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-030, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Fortin, Pierre, 2024. "Does immigration help alleviate economy-wide labour shortages?," CLEF Working Paper Series 70, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    5. Gökten, Meryem & Heimberger, Philipp & Lichtenberger, Andreas, 2024. "How far from full employment? The European unemployment problem revisited," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    6. Joshua Bernstein & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2022. "The Matching Function and Nonlinear Business Cycles," Working Papers 2201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Garita, Jonathan & Pastrana, Guillermo & Slon, Pablo, 2024. "Job displacement effects and labor market sorting during COVID-19," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(2).
    8. Leythienne, Jean Fernand, 2024. "Is euro area at full employment ? — A diagnosis from the Beveridge curve," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 322-340.
    9. Miroslav Gabrovski & Ioannis Kospentaris & Lucie Lebeau, 2024. "The Macroeconomics of Labor, Credit and Financial Market Imperfections," Working Papers 2409, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Shisham Adhikari & Athanasios Geromichalos & Ioannis Kospentaris, 2023. "How much work experience do you need to get your first job? The macroeconomic implications of bias against labor market entrants," Working Papers 357, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    11. Fabrice Collard & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay, 2024. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 24-03, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised May 2024.
    12. Alex Domash & Lawrence H. Summers, 2022. "How Tight are U.S. Labor Markets?," NBER Working Papers 29739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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