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The Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions

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  • Alrababah, Ala
  • Masterson, Daniel
  • Casalis, Marine
  • Hangartner, Dominik
  • Weinstein, Jeremy

Abstract

We study the drivers of refugees' decision making about returning home using observational and experimental data from a survey of 3,003 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. We find that the conditions in refugee-hosting countries play a minor role. In contrast, conditions in a refugee's home country are the main drivers of return intentions. Even in the face of hostility and poor living conditions in host countries, refugees are unlikely to return unless the situation at home improves significantly. These results challenge traditional models of decision making about migration, where refugees weigh living conditions in the host and home countries (“push” and “pull” factors). We offer an alternative theoretical framework: a model of threshold-based decision making whereby only once a basic threshold of safety at home is met do refugees compare other factors in the host and home country. We explore some empirical implications of this new perspective using qualitative interviews and quantitative survey data.

Suggested Citation

  • Alrababah, Ala & Masterson, Daniel & Casalis, Marine & Hangartner, Dominik & Weinstein, Jeremy, 2023. "The Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 1108-1131, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:53:y:2023:i:4:p:1108-1131_2
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    Cited by:

    1. Joop Age Harm Adema & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Yvonne Giesing & Panu Poutvaara, 2023. "The Effect of Conflict on Ukrainian Refugees’ Return and Integration," CESifo Working Paper Series 10877, CESifo.
    2. Beber, Bernd & Ebert, Cara & Sievert, Maximiliane, 2024. "Is Intent to Migrate Irregularly Responsive to Recent German Asylum Policy Adjustments?," IZA Discussion Papers 16850, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Ahrens, Achim & Casalis, Marine & Hangartner, Dominik & Sánchez, Rodrigo, 2024. "Cash-based interventions improve multidimensional integration outcomes of Venezuelan immigrants," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    4. Kristin Fabbe & Chad Hazlett & Tolga Sinmazdemir, 2024. "Threat perceptions, loyalties and attitudes towards peace: The effects of civilian victimization among Syrian refugees in Turkey," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(3), pages 263-288, May.
    5. Adema, Joop & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Giesing, Yvonne & Poutvaara, Panu, 2024. "The Effect of Conflict on Refugees' Return and Integration: Evidence from Ukraine," IZA Discussion Papers 16962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Beber, Bernd & Ebert, Cara & Sievert, Maximiliane, 2024. "Is intent to migrate irregularly responsive to recent German asylum policy adjustments?," Ruhr Economic Papers 1071, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Jacopo Bassetto & Teresa Freitas Monteiro, 2024. "Immigrants’ Returns Intentions and Job Search Behavior When the Home Country Is Unsafe," CESifo Working Paper Series 10908, CESifo.

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