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Reconciling Occupational Mobility in the Current Population Survey

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  • vom Lehn, Christian

    (Brigham Young University)

  • Ellsworth, Cache

    (Columbia Business School)

  • Kroff, Zachary

    (U.S. Census Bureau)

Abstract

Measuring occupational mobility from the Current Population Survey using recall (retrospective) or linked panel responses (longitudinal) generates substantially different outcomes, both in levels and trends. Using a generalized method of moments technique, we estimate the actual level of occupational mobility and the measurement error in both of these measures for 1981-2018. Measurement error in longitudinal measures is large and has been worsening over time. However, actual occupational mobility is approximately 70% higher than retrospectively measures. Our estimated corrections imply workers in tradable occupations are less likely to switch occupations than previously believed, implying potentially lower welfare gains from trade.

Suggested Citation

  • vom Lehn, Christian & Ellsworth, Cache & Kroff, Zachary, 2020. "Reconciling Occupational Mobility in the Current Population Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 13509, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13509
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    Cited by:

    1. Alonzo, Davide & Gallipoli, Giovanni, 2023. "The Changing Value of Employment and Its Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 17943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Joseph Price & Christian vom Lehn & Riley Wilson, 2020. "The Winners and Losers of Immigration: Evidence from Linked Historical Data," NBER Working Papers 27156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Maximiliano Dvorkin, 2021. "International trade and labor reallocation: misclassification errors, mobility, and switching costs," Working Papers 2021-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Jun 2024.
    4. Robert Bernhardt & David Munro & Erin L. Wolcott, 2024. "How does the dramatic rise of nonresponse in the Current Population Survey impact labor market indicators?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 498-512, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    occupational switching; worker mobility; current population survey; measurement error; trade adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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