IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v103y2013i2p1054-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of the US Unemployment Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Shuaizhang Feng
  • Yingyao Hu

Abstract

Using recent results in the measurement error literature, we show that the official US unemployment rate substantially underestimates the true level of unemployment, due to misclassification errors in the labor force status in the Current Population Survey. During the period from January 1996 to August 2011, the corrected monthly unemployment rates are between 1 and 4.4 percentage points (2.1 percentage points on average) higher than the official rates, and are more sensitive to changes in business cycles. The labor force participation rates, however, are not affected by this correction.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuaizhang Feng & Yingyao Hu, 2013. "Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of the US Unemployment Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 1054-1070, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:2:p:1054-70
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.2.1054
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.103.2.1054
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/april2013/20100815_data.zip
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/april2013/20100815_app.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thierry Magnac & Michael Visser, 1999. "Transition Models With Measurement Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 466-474, August.
    2. Peracchi, Franco & Welch, Finis, 1995. "How representative are matched cross-sections? Evidence from the Current Population Survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 153-179, July.
    3. Henry S. Farber, 1999. "Alternative and Part-Time Employment Arrangements as a Response to Job Loss," NBER Working Papers 7002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-283, June.
    5. Stephen R. G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, 1999. "The Measurement of Unemployment: An Empirical Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 147-162, January.
    6. Bound, John & Brown, Charles & Mathiowetz, Nancy, 2001. "Measurement error in survey data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 59, pages 3705-3843, Elsevier.
    7. Farber, Henry S, 1999. "Alternative and Part-Time Employment Arrangements as a Response to Job Loss," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 142-169, October.
    8. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
    9. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1995. "Unemployment Benefits and Labor Market Transitions: A Multinomial Logit Model with Errors in Classification," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 207-216, May.
    10. Hu, Yingyao, 2008. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear models with misclassification error using instrumental variables: A general solution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 27-61, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Hu, Yingyao, 2017. "The Econometrics of Unobservables -- Latent Variable and Measurement Error Models and Their Applications in Empirical Industrial Organization and Labor Economics [The Econometrics of Unobservables]," Economics Working Paper Archive 64578, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised 2021.
    3. Shibata, Ippei, 2022. "Reassessing classification errors in the analysis of labor market dynamics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Paul Sullivan, 2009. "Estimation of an Occupational Choice Model when Occupations are Misclassified," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    5. Stephen R. G. Jones & Craig Riddell, 2000. "The Dynamics of US Labor Force Attachment," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0011, Econometric Society.
    6. Matteo Picchio, 2012. "The Dynamics of Unemployment, Temporary and Permanent Employment in Italy," AIEL Series in Labour Economics, in: Tindara Addabbo & Giovanni Solinas (ed.), Non-Standard Employment and Quality of Work. The Case of Italy, edition 1, chapter 7, pages 127-147, AIEL - Associazione Italiana Economisti del Lavoro.
    7. Hyslop, Dean R. & Townsend, Wilbur, 2017. "Employment misclassification in survey and administrative reports," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 19-23.
    8. Barry T. Hirsch, 2005. "Why Do Part-Time Workers Earn Less? The Role of Worker and Job Skills," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 58(4), pages 525-551, July.
    9. Florence Jaumotte, 2005. "Les femmes sur le marché du travail : Évidence empirique sur le rôle des politiques économiques et autres déterminants dans les pays de l'OCDE," Revue économique de l'OCDE, Éditions OCDE, vol. 2003(2), pages 57-123.
    10. Ugo Trivellato & Anna Giraldo, 2006. "Assessing the ‘Choosiness’ of Job‐seekers. An Exploratory Approach and Evidence for Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-36, March.
    11. Meyer, Bruce D. & Mittag, Nikolas, 2017. "Misclassification in binary choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 295-311.
    12. Schmidt, Christoph M., 1999. "The Heterogeneity and Cyclical Sensitivity of Unemployment: An Exploration of German Labor Market Flows," IZA Discussion Papers 84, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
    14. Olga Kuzmina, 2023. "Employment Flexibility and Capital Structure: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(9), pages 4992-5017, September.
    15. Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Identification of Causal Models with Unobservables: A Self-Report Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive 64330, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    16. von Greiff, Jenny, 2009. "Displacement and self-employment entry," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 556-565, October.
    17. DiTraglia, Francis J. & García-Jimeno, Camilo, 2019. "Identifying the effect of a mis-classified, binary, endogenous regressor," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 376-390.
    18. repec:pri:cepsud:171farber is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Christopher R. Bollinger, 2001. "Response Error and the Union Wage Differential," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(1), pages 60-76, July.
    20. Robert W. Fairlie & Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2015. "Behind the GATE Experiment: Evidence on Effects of and Rationales for Subsidized Entrepreneurship Training," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 125-161, May.
    21. Barbara Petrongolo, 2004. "Gender Segregation in Employment Contracts," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 331-345, 04/05.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of the US Unemployment Rate (AER 2013) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:2:p:1054-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.