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Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture: 2021 update

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Abstract

This report investigates the potential effects of 12 free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU trade agenda. For this, it quantifies the cumulated sectoral impacts in terms of bilateral trade, production, demand, and price developments. Moreover, it provides insights on the evolution of supply, demand, and farm-gate prices for the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets. In contrast to a forecast exercise, this analysis compares two variants of a trade liberalisation scenario (conservative and ambitious) to a business-as-usual (baseline) situation in 2030. The study confirms that the analysed free trade agreements have the potential to benefit the EU agri-food sector when considered simultaneously. It also highlights the vulnerability of the beef, sheep meat, poultry, sugar, and rice sectors.

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  • Emanuele Ferrari & Thomas Chatzopoulos & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Pierre Boulanger & Kirsten Boysen-Urban & Mihaly Himics & Robert M’barek, 2021. "Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture: 2021 update," JRC Research Reports JRC123037, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc123037
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    Cited by:

    1. Emanuele Ferrari & Christian Elleby & Beyhan DE JONG & Robert M'barek & Ignacio PEREZ DOMINGUEZ, 2024. "Cumulative economic impact of upcoming trade agreements on EU agriculture," JRC Research Reports JRC135540, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Binfield, Julian & Boulanger, Pierre & Davids, Tracy & Dudu, Hasan & Ferrari, Emanuele & Mainar-Causapé, Alfredo, 2022. "Trade liberalisation in Kenya: A modelling linkage for wheat and maize," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(1), March.
    3. Ferrari, Emanuele & Christidis, Panayotis, 2022. "Modelling the impacts of a surge in shipping costs," Conference papers 333463, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Fabio G. Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca, 2024. "Exports of Fruit and Vegetables from Morocco and other Mediterranean Countries to the EU: Some Policy Recommendations from the Covid Pandemic," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 23(1), pages 67-72, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE; PE; modelling; trade; agriculture; EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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