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A Foresight Study of European East-West Agrifood Trade Options

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  • Philippidis, George
  • Sanjuán, Ana
  • Tabeau, Andrzej
  • van Berkum, Siemen
  • Verma, Monika

Abstract

Taking a trade perspective with a focus on agri-food markets, the current foresight study employs a computable general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the implications of different future pathways of European East-West trade relations for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), thereby providing insight on how best to orientate their political and trade strategies. Comparing with a baseline, two optimistic pathways explore greater market access, both within Europe (‘Deep integration’) and globally (‘trade liberalisation’). In contrast, an isolationist ‘trade bloc’ pathway reflecting a deteriorating political situation between Russia and the West is also examined. In the ‘baseline’, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) members realise market gains, whilst intra-CIS trade diversion effects are small. The ‘deep integration’ scenario (‘liberalisation’ scenario) generates significant relative benefits for DCFTA signatories’ agrifood (non-agrifood) activities. In both of these trade reform narratives, the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) economic gains are biased in favour of Russia’s energy sector resulting in greater import dependence on agrifood commodities from the EU. The isolationist trade narrative nurtures EAEU agrifood activity, although at the cost of its macro-economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippidis, George & Sanjuán, Ana & Tabeau, Andrzej & van Berkum, Siemen & Verma, Monika, 2018. "A Foresight Study of European East-West Agrifood Trade Options," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 67(3), September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:309980
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.309980
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fugazza, Marco & Maur, Jean-Christophe, 2008. "Non-tariff barriers in CGE models: How useful for policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 475-490.
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    1. Emanuele Ferrari & Christian Elleby & Beyhan DE JONG & Robert M'barek & Ignacio PEREZ DOMINGUEZ, 2024. "Cumulative economic impact of upcoming trade agreements on EU agriculture," JRC Research Reports JRC135540, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Emanuele Ferrari & Thomas Chatzopoulos & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Pierre Boulanger & Kirsten Boysen-Urban & Mihaly Himics & Robert M’barek, 2021. "Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture: 2021 update," JRC Research Reports JRC123037, Joint Research Centre.

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