IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipt/iptwpa/jrc135540.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cumulative economic impact of upcoming trade agreements on EU agriculture

Author

Abstract

This study investigates the potential effects of 10 upcoming free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU trade agenda. It quantifies the cumulative sectoral impacts in terms of bilateral trade, production, demand and price developments. Moreover, it provides insights into the evolution of supply, demand and farm-gate prices for the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets. In contrast to a forecast exercise, this analysis compares two variants of a trade liberalisation scenario (conservative and ambitious) with a business-as-usual (baseline) situation in 2032, including an analysis of the effects of the UK trade agenda on EU agri-food trade. The study confirms that the analysed FTAs have the potential to benefit the EU agri-food sector, especially the dairy, pigmeat, processed food and beverages sectors. It also highlights the vulnerability of the beef, sheep meat, poultry meat, sugar and rice sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Ferrari & Christian Elleby & Beyhan DE JONG & Robert M'barek & Ignacio PEREZ DOMINGUEZ, 2024. "Cumulative economic impact of upcoming trade agreements on EU agriculture," JRC Research Reports JRC135540, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc135540
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135540
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sartori, Martina & Philippidis, George & Ferrari, Emanuele & Borrelli, Pasquale & Lugato, Emanuele & Montanarella, Luca & Panagos, Panos, 2019. "A linkage between the biophysical and the economic: Assessing the global market impacts of soil erosion," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 299-312.
    2. Pierre Boulanger & Hasan Dudu & Emanuele Ferrari & Mihaly Himics & Robert M'barek, 2016. "Cumulative economic impact of future trade agreements on EU agriculture, Extended summary," JRC Research Reports JRC103838, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    4. John C. Beghin & Miet Maertens & Johan Swinnen, 2017. "Nontariff Measures and Standards in Trade and Global Value Chains," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 2, pages 13-38, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. PIERALLI Simone & CHATZOPOULOS Thomas & ELLEBY Christian & PEREZ DOMINGUEZ Ignacio, 2022. "Documentation of the European Commission’s EU module of the Aglink-Cosimo model: 2021 version," JRC Research Reports JRC130965, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Terrie Walmsley & Anna Strutt, 2021. "A Comparison of Approaches to Modelling Non-Tariff Measures," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 6(1), pages 1-33, June.
    7. Christian Elleby & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Marcel Adenauer & Giampiero Genovese, 2020. "Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Agricultural Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1067-1079, August.
    8. Ruth Delzeit & Roberto Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel , 2020. "Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls," Post-Print hal-03128285, HAL.
    9. Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David & Martin, Will, 2005. "Sensitive Products: Selection and Implications for Agricultural Trade Negotiations," Conference papers 331439, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    11. Pierre Boulanger & Hasan Dudu & Emanuele Ferrari & Mihaly Himics & Robert M'barek, 2016. "Cumulative economic impact of future trade agreements on EU agriculture," JRC Research Reports JRC103602, Joint Research Centre.
    12. Emanuele Ferrari & Thomas Chatzopoulos & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Pierre Boulanger & Kirsten Boysen-Urban & Mihaly Himics & Robert M’barek, 2021. "Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture: 2021 update," JRC Research Reports JRC123037, Joint Research Centre.
    13. Jafari, Yaghoob & Britz, Wolfgang & Guimbard, Houssein & Beckman, Jayson, 2021. "Properly capturing tariff rate quotas for trade policy analysis in computable general equilibrium models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    14. Julien Gourdon & Susan Stone & Frank van Tongeren, 2020. "Non-tariff measures in agriculture," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 147, OECD Publishing.
    15. Lars Nilsson, 2018. "Reflections on the Economic Modelling of Free Trade Agreements," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 3(1), pages 156-186, June.
    16. Simone Pieralli & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Christian Elleby & Thomas Chatzopoulos, 2021. "Budgetary Impacts of Adding Agricultural Risk Management Programmes to the CAP," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 370-387, June.
    17. Boulanger, Pierre & Philippidis, George, 2015. "The EU budget battle: Assessing the trade and welfare impacts of CAP budgetary reform," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 119-130.
    18. BOYSEN-URBAN Kirsten & M'BAREK Robert & PHILIPPIDIS George & FERRER Hugo, 2022. "Exploring changing food attitudes to respect planetary boundaries," JRC Research Reports JRC126157, Joint Research Centre.
    19. Philippidis, George & Sanjuán, Ana & Tabeau, Andrzej & van Berkum, Siemen & Verma, Monika, 2018. "A Foresight Study of European East-West Agrifood Trade Options," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 67(3), September.
    20. Sanjuán, Ana I. & Philippidis, George & Ferrer Pérez, Hugo & Gracia de Rentería, Pilar, 2023. "Empirical insights on the dynamics of SPS trade costs: The role of regulatory convergence and experience in EU dairy trade," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    21. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emanuele Ferrari & Thomas Chatzopoulos & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Pierre Boulanger & Kirsten Boysen-Urban & Mihaly Himics & Robert M’barek, 2021. "Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture: 2021 update," JRC Research Reports JRC123037, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Ferrari, Emanuele & Chatzopoulos, Thomas & Domínguez, Ignacio Pérez & Boulanger, Pierre & Boysen-Urban, Kirsten & Himics, Mihaly & M'barek, Robert & Redondo, Marina Pinilla, 2021. "Economic Impact of Free Trade Agreements on the EU Agri-Food Sector," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315030, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Weitzel, Matthias & Vandyck, Toon & Rey Los Santos, Luis & Tamba, Marie & Temursho, Umed & Wojtowicz, Krzysztof, 2023. "A comprehensive socio-economic assessment of EU climate policy pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    4. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    5. Diamantis Koutsandreas & Evangelos Spiliotis & Haris Doukas & John Psarras, 2021. "What Is the Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Decarbonization Speeds? The Case of Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Sartori, Martina & Ferrari, Emanuele & M'Barek, Robert & Philippidis, George & Boysen-Urban, Kirsten & Borrelli, Pasquale & Montanarella, Luca & Panagos, Panos, 2024. "Remaining Loyal to Our Soil: A Prospective Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion on Global Food Security," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    7. KERAMIDAS Kimon & FOSSE Florian & DIAZ VAZQUEZ Ana & DOWLING Paul & GARAFFA Rafael & DESPRÉS Jacques & RUSS Hans Peter & SCHADE Burkhard & SCHMITZ Andreas & SORIA RAMIREZ Antonio & VANDYCK Toon & WEIT, 2021. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2021: Advancing towards climate neutrality," JRC Research Reports JRC126767, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Jafari, Yaghoob & Engemann, Helena & Heckelei, Thomas & Hainsch, Karlo, 2023. "National and Regional Economic Impacts of changes in Germany's electricity mix: A dynamic analysis through 2050," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Philippidis, George & M'Barek, Robert & Urban-Boysen, Kirsten & Van Zeist, Willem-Jan, 2023. "Exploring economy-wide sustainable conditions for EU bio-chemical activities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    10. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2021. "What impact are subsidies and trade barriers abroad having on Australasian and Brazilian agriculture?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(2), pages 265-290, April.
    11. Corong, Erwin & Strutt, Anna, 2020. "Exploring the Impacts of Changing Energy Costs on New Zealand Agriculture to 2030: A GTAP-E-RD Application," Conference papers 333173, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Franck Lecocq & Alain Nadaï & Christophe Cassen, 2022. "Getting models and modellers to inform deep decarbonization strategies," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 695-710, July.
    13. Banerjee, Onil & Crossman, Neville & Vargas, Renato & Brander, Luke & Verburg, Peter & Cicowiez, Martin & Hauck, Jennifer & McKenzie, Emily, 2020. "Global socio-economic impacts of changes in natural capital and ecosystem services: State of play and new modeling approaches," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    14. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    15. Haqiqi, Iman & Buzan, Jonathan & Zanetti De Lima, Cicero & Hertel, Thomas, 2020. "Margins of Adaptation to Human Heat Stress: Local, National, and Global Socioeconomic Responses," Conference papers 333237, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Adam Rose & Terrie Walmsley & Dan Wei, 2021. "Spatial transmission of the economic impacts of COVID-19 through international trade," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 169-196, August.
    17. Anja Bauer & Leo Capari & Daniela Fuchs & Titus Udrea, 2023. "Diversification, integration, and opening: developments in modelling for policy," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(6), pages 977-987.
    18. Roson, Roberto, 2022. "Education, Labor Force Composition, and Growth A General Equilibrium Analysis," Conference papers 333421, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Ferrari, Emanuele & Christidis, Panayotis, 2022. "Modelling the impacts of a surge in shipping costs," Conference papers 333463, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Frankovic, Ivan, 2022. "The impact of carbon pricing in a multi-region production network model and an application to climate scenarios," Discussion Papers 07/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; EU; general equilibrium model; partial equilibrium model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc135540. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publication Officer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipjrces.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.