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Cumulative economic impact of upcoming trade agreements on EU agriculture

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Abstract

This study investigates the potential effects of 10 upcoming free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU trade agenda. It quantifies the cumulative sectoral impacts in terms of bilateral trade, production, demand and price developments. Moreover, it provides insights into the evolution of supply, demand and farm-gate prices for the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets. In contrast to a forecast exercise, this analysis compares two variants of a trade liberalisation scenario (conservative and ambitious) with a business-as-usual (baseline) situation in 2032, including an analysis of the effects of the UK trade agenda on EU agri-food trade. The study confirms that the analysed FTAs have the potential to benefit the EU agri-food sector, especially the dairy, pigmeat, processed food and beverages sectors. It also highlights the vulnerability of the beef, sheep meat, poultry meat, sugar and rice sectors.

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  • Emanuele Ferrari & Christian Elleby & Beyhan DE JONG & Robert M'barek & Ignacio PEREZ DOMINGUEZ, 2024. "Cumulative economic impact of upcoming trade agreements on EU agriculture," JRC Research Reports JRC135540, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc135540
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sergio René Araujo Enciso & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Fabien Santini & Sophie Helaine, 2015. "Documentation of the European Comissions EU module of the Aglink-Cosimo modelling system," JRC Research Reports JRC92618, Joint Research Centre.
    2. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q2-130-5 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; EU; general equilibrium model; partial equilibrium model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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