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Ein integriertes Modell zur Schätzung von Arbeitskräfteangebot und Bevölkerung

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Söhnlein, Doris

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Brigitte

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg)

Abstract

"This paper is concerned with the projection of the population in Germany and the labour supply till 2060 in an integrated model. A new and redesigned populationprojection of the IAB is presented and also labour participation is re-estimated. For the population forecast alternative approaches to previous deterministic computations are used, which allow completely integrated simulations and the possibility to illustrate the uncertainties in the form of confidence intervals." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Ein integriertes Modell zur Schätzung von Arbeitskräfteangebot und Bevölkerung," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201610, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabfob:201610
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dengler, Katharina & Matthes, Britta, 2015. "Folgen der Digitalisierung für die Arbeitswelt : Substituierbarkeitspotenziale von Berufen in Deutschland," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201511, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Peres-Neto, Pedro R. & Jackson, Donald A. & Somers, Keith M., 2005. "How many principal components? stopping rules for determining the number of non-trivial axes revisited," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 974-997, June.
    3. Hendrik Hansen & Peter Pflaumer, 2011. "Zur Prognose der Lebenserwartung in Deutschland: Ein Vergleich verschiedener Verfahren," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 203-219, December.
    4. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
    5. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2005. "Neuschätzung der Stillen Reserve und des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials für Ostdeutschland (einschl. Berlin-Ost)," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200518, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2013. "Projektion der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis zum Jahr 2060," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201310, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Johann Fuchs, 2014. "Der Einfluss von Hartz IV auf die westdeutsche Stille Reserve – Ergebnisse auf Basis unterschiedlicher methodischer Ansätze," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 8(1), pages 33-48, June.
    8. Booth, H. & Tickle, L., 2008. "Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1-2), pages 3-43, September.
    9. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    10. Elke Holst & Jürgen Schupp, 2000. "Stille Reserve wichtig für die Arbeitsmarktflexibilität in Deutschland," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 67(29), pages 457-465.
    11. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2005. "Neuschätzung der Stillen Reserve und des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials für Westdeutschland (inkl. Berlin-West)," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200515, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. O'Hare, Colin & Li, Youwei, 2014. "Identifying structural breaks in stochastic mortality models," MPRA Paper 62994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hummel, Markus & Bernardt, Florian & Kalinowski, Michael & Maier, Tobias & Mönnig, Anke & Schneemann, Christian & Steeg, Stefanie & Wolter, Marc Ingo & Zika, Gerd, 2021. "Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektion bis 2040 nach Bundesländern: Demografie und Strukturwandel prägen weiterhin die regionale Entwicklung der Arbeitsmärkte (Qualifications and occupations projection ," IAB-Kurzbericht 202101, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte, 2017. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Arbeitskräfteangebot sinkt auch bei hoher Zuwanderung," IAB-Kurzbericht 201706, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Zika, Gerd & Schneemann, Christian & Hummel, Markus & Maier, Tobias & Kalinowski, Michael & Bernardt, Florian & Mönnig, Anke & Parton, Frederik & Sonnenburg, Anja & Ulrich, Philip & Wolter, Marc Ingo, 2020. "Langfristige Folgen von Demografie und Strukturwandel für regionale Arbeitsmärkte : Daten, Methoden und Ergebnisse der 5. Welle der BIBB-IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202001, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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