IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iab/iabkbe/201706.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Arbeitskräfteangebot sinkt auch bei hoher Zuwanderung

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Söhnlein, Doris

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Brigitte

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"The German potential labour force is expected to shrink strongly for demographic reasons. Even if we assume an annual net migration of 200,000 persons, which is approximately the average over a longer historical period, the potential labour force will drop from the current (2015) high level of 45.8m workers to 38.9m in 2060. The report also evaluates the effect of a higher migration inflow, a rise in the birth rates, the influence of increasing labour participation rates of women and older persons and a better integration of female migrants. Neither of these improvements could compensate for the demographic development nor can the sum." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte, 2017. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Arbeitskräfteangebot sinkt auch bei hoher Zuwanderung," IAB-Kurzbericht 201706, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:201706
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2017/kb0617.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Ein integriertes Modell zur Schätzung von Arbeitskräfteangebot und Bevölkerung," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201610, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dominik Mann & Sean-Pascal Kuttner & Julius Georgi Wesirow & Lukas Bachmann & Anna Marie Körner & Yannis Grabbe & Laura Rothe & Lisa Schueler & Julia Lang & Michaela Fuchs, 2021. "Applaus allein reicht nicht — wie können Pflegeberufe attraktiver werden? [Applause Alone Is Not Enough — How Can Nursing Professions Become More Attractive?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(12), pages 950-952, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fritz Breuss, 2006. "Teilstudie 4: Europäische Wirtschaftspolitik: Binnenmarkt, WWU, Lissabon, Erweiterung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 27443, April.
    2. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2006. "Effekte alternativer Annahmen auf die prognostizierte Erwerbsbevölkerung," IAB-Discussion Paper 200619, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Michael Fuchs & Aaron George Grech & Asghar Zaidi, 2006. "Pension Policy in EU25 and its Possible Impact on Elderly Poverty," CASE Papers case116, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    4. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Sandra Müllbacher, 2013. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). New Results," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46830, April.
    5. Hummel, Markus & Bernardt, Florian & Kalinowski, Michael & Maier, Tobias & Mönnig, Anke & Schneemann, Christian & Steeg, Stefanie & Wolter, Marc Ingo & Zika, Gerd, 2021. "Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektion bis 2040 nach Bundesländern: Demografie und Strukturwandel prägen weiterhin die regionale Entwicklung der Arbeitsmärkte (Qualifications and occupations projection ," IAB-Kurzbericht 202101, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Yen-hsin Alice Cheng & Elke Loichinger, 2017. "The Future Labor Force of an Aging Taiwan: The Importance of Education and Female Labor Supply," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(3), pages 441-466, June.
    7. Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer, 2014. "Einfluss von Bildungsexpansion und Pensionsreformen auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung. Prognose der Erwerbsquote und des Arbeitskräfteangebotes bis 2030," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(6), pages 411-426, June.
    8. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Sandra Müllbacher, 2014. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). New Results (2014)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47254, April.
    9. Fenge, Robert & Peglow, François, 2018. "Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 61-76.
    10. Grech, Aaron George, 2015. "Pension reforms in the 1990s and during the financial crisis: More of the same?," MPRA Paper 66894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Christine Mayrhuber & Gerhard Rünstler & Thomas Url & Werner Eichhorst & Michael J. Kendzia & Maarten Gerard & Connie Nielsen, 2011. "Pension Systems in the EU. Contingent Liabilities and Assets in the Public and Private Sector," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 43938, April.
    12. Jensen, Henning Tarp, 2009. "General equilibrium impact evaluation of road sector investment programs in Ghana," Conference papers 331858, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Alessandra Caretta & Sara Flisi & Cecilia Frale & Michele Raitano & Simone Tedeschi, 2013. "T-DYMM : the treasury dynamic microsimulation model of the Italian pension system," Working Papers 11, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    14. Cem Baslevent & Hasan Kirmanoglu, 2015. "Quality of government, egalitarianism, and welfare state attitudes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2877-2887.
    15. Elke Loichinger & Alexia Prskawetz, 2017. "Changes in economic activity: The role of age and education," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(40), pages 1185-1208.
    16. Laura MAXIM (DIACONU) & Corneliu DIACONU & Andrei MAXIM, 2015. "The Evolution Of The Medical System And Health Status In Romania After The Collapse Of Communism," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7(2a), pages 555-565, September.
    17. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2007. "Einflussfaktoren auf das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial : Demografie und Erwerbsverhalten in Ost- und Westdeutschland," IAB-Discussion Paper 200712, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    18. Giuseppe Carone & Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Gilles Mourre & Werner Röger, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 253, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    19. Torben M Andersen, 2010. "Discussion comments on "Immigration: trends and macroeconomic implications"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Globalisation, labour markets and international adjustment - Essays in honour of Palle S Andersen, volume 50, pages 65-68, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Thomas Url & Rob J. Hyndman & Alexander Dokumentov, 2016. "Long-term Forecasts of Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates with Functional Data Models," WIFO Working Papers 510, WIFO.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:201706. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IAB, Geschäftsbereich Wissenschaftliche Fachinformation und Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iabbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.