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Replacement migration from a labour market perspective : Germany's long-term potential labour force and immigration from non-EU member countries

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Kubis, Alexander

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Schneider, Lutz

    (University of Applied Sciences and Arts, Coburg)

Abstract

"We quantify the development of the potential labour force in Germany from 2014 to 2050 and pose the question as to which extent migration will be able to offset the well-known negative demographic influence. The mean overall results of this long period of time show that while migration may slightly dampen the trend, it cannot fully compensate for it, depending on the development of domestic labour participation. Persistently high immigration numbers, however, will defer the demographic caused decline of the workforce for some years. In contrast, even high, if realistic, immigration flows will only slow down demographic ageing." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Kubis, Alexander & Schneider, Lutz, 2016. "Replacement migration from a labour market perspective : Germany's long-term potential labour force and immigration from non-EU member countries," IAB-Discussion Paper 201604, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201604
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brücker, Herbert & Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79693, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2005. "Vorausschätzung der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis 2050," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200516, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2013. "Projektion der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis zum Jahr 2060," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201310, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
    5. Schneider, Lutz, 2011. "Alterung und Arbeitsmarkt: Eine Untersuchung zum Einfluss des Alters von Beschäftigten auf Produktivität, Innovation und Mobilität," IWH-Sonderhefte 3/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    6. Rowland, Donald T., 2003. "Demographic Methods and Concepts," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198752639.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Boll, Christina & Lagemann, Andreas, 2018. "Das Erwerbsverhalten von Eltern mit Migrationshintergrund: SOEP-basierte Befunde und deren Implikationen für Hamburg," HWWI Policy Papers 112, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    2. Boll, Christina & Lagemann, Andreas & Welsch, Achim & Wolf, André, 2020. "Migrant integration: Insights from Belgium, Italy, Spain and Germany," HWWI Policy Papers 127, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Knize Estrada, Veronika J., 2018. "Migrant women labor-force participation in Germany : Human capital, segmented labor market, and gender perspectives," IAB-Discussion Paper 201812, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Boll, Christina & Lagemann, Andreas, 2018. "Does culture trump money? Employment and childcare use of migrant and non-migrant mothers of pre-school children in Germany," HWWI Research Papers 187, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    5. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Forecasting labour supply and population: an integrated stochastic model," IAB-Discussion Paper 201701, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Christina Boll & Andreas Lagemann, 2018. "Does Culture Trump Money? Erwerbsverhalten und Kitanutzung von Müttern mit und ohne Migrationshintergrund in Deutschland," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1014, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    7. Möller, Joachim, 2016. "Lohnungleichheit: Gibt es eine Trendwende? (German wage inequality: Is there a trend reversal?)," IAB-Discussion Paper 201609, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Brigitte Weber & Enzo Weber, 2018. "Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 33-58, February.
    9. Mudassira Sarfraz & Zubaria Andlib & Muhammad Kamran & Noor Ullah Khan & Hanieh Alipour Bazkiaei, 2021. "Pathways towards Women Empowerment and Determinants of Decent Work Deficit: A South Asian Perspective," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, August.
    10. Zubaria Andlib & Aliya H Khan, 2018. "Low Female Labor Force Participation in Pakistan: Causes and Factors," Global Social Sciences Review, Humanity Only, vol. 3(3), pages 237-264, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Auswirkungen ; Auswirkungen ; EU-Bürger ; Drittstaatsangehörige ; Bevölkerungsstruktur ; demografischer Wandel ; Einwanderung ; Erwerbsbevölkerung ; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial ; Altersstruktur ; Arbeitskräfteangebot ; Szenario ; Arbeitsmarktprognose ; 2013-2050;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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