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Demografische Alterung führt zu einem stark sinkenden Erwerbspersonenpotenzial
[Demographic Ageing Leads to a Sharply Declining Labour Force Potential]

Author

Listed:
  • Johann Fuchs

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB))

  • Doris Söhnlein

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB))

  • Birgit Weber

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB))

Abstract

The demographic development in Germany will lead to a declining number of people of working age and thus potentially in the labour force. The age structure is shifting towards older cohorts. The labour force will decline by 16 million workers between 2020 and 2060. However, an increase in the labour force participation of women and elderly people combined with immigration will mitigate the demographic effect. An average net migration of 100,000 persons per year would result in a projected decline in the labour force of 9 million by 2060. An extremely high migration of at least 400,000 persons would allow the potential labour force to remain roughly constant. A sensitivity analysis also looks at the effects that may arise if the participation rates increased even further.

Suggested Citation

  • Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Birgit Weber, 2022. "Demografische Alterung führt zu einem stark sinkenden Erwerbspersonenpotenzial [Demographic Ageing Leads to a Sharply Declining Labour Force Potential]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(2), pages 148-150, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:102:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10273-022-3118-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-022-3118-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2021. "Neue Schätzungen für die Stille Reserve - erstmalig Anwendung des IAB-Konzepts auf Gesamtdeutschland," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202106, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2005. "Vorausschätzung der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis 2050," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200516, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Bauer, Anja & Fuchs, Johann & Gartner, Hermann & Hummel, Markus & Hutter, Christian & Wanger, Susanne & Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2021. "IAB-Prognose: Arbeitsmarkt auf dem Weg aus der Krise," IAB-Kurzbericht 202106, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    J11; J21; J22;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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