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Real-time bus arrival information system: an empirical evaluation

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Abstract

Waiting time uncertainty is one of the main determinants of public transport reliability and overall level-of-service. The dissemination of real-time information concerning vehicle arrivals is often considered an important measure to reduce unreliability. Moreover, the prediction of downstream vehicle trajectories could also benefit real-time control strategies. In order to adequately analyze the performance of real-time bus arrival information system, the generated predictions have to be compared against empirical bus arrival data. A conventional real-world bus arrival prediction scheme is formulated and applied on the trunk lines network in Stockholm. This scheme was found to systematically underestimate the remaining waiting time by 6.2% on average. Prediction error accuracy and reliability varies considerably over time periods, along the route and as a function of the prognosis horizon. The difference between passengers’ waiting time expectations derived from the timetable and real-time information is equivalent to 30% of the average waiting time.

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  • Cats, Oded & Loutos, Gerasimos, 2013. "Real-time bus arrival information system: an empirical evaluation," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:25, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_025
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    File URL: http://www.transportportal.se/swopec/CTS2013-25.pdf
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    1. Watkins, Kari Edison & Ferris, Brian & Borning, Alan & Rutherford, G. Scott & Layton, David, 2011. "Where Is My Bus? Impact of mobile real-time information on the perceived and actual wait time of transit riders," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 839-848, October.
    2. Nam H. Vu & Ata M. Khan, 2010. "Bus running time prediction using a statistical pattern recognition technique," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 625-642, July.
    3. Dziekan, Katrin & Kottenhoff, Karl, 2007. "Dynamic at-stop real-time information displays for public transport: effects on customers," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 489-501, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oded Cats & Zafeira Gkioulou, 2017. "Modeling the impacts of public transport reliability and travel information on passengers’ waiting-time uncertainty," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(3), pages 247-270, September.
    2. Cats, Oded, 2014. "Regularity-driven bus operation: Principles, implementation and business models," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 223-230.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public transport; Real-time information; Reliability; Prediction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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