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Russian Food Embargo and the Lost Trade

Author

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  • Angela Cheptea

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - INSTITUT AGRO Agrocampus Ouest - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)

  • Carl Gaigné

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - INSTITUT AGRO Agrocampus Ouest - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)

Abstract

We analyse the impact of the Russian food embargo on European and Russian trade patterns using a triple-difference estimation strategy. We quantify the embargo-induced loss in EU28 exports at €125 million per month. Only 45 per cent of the drop in EU exports of banned products to Russia was due to the ban. EU member states were unevenly affected by the ban. The estimated losses of welfare in Russia range from 0.2 to 0.6 per cent (In absolute terms, this represents €18 to €58 of the 2013 revenue of the average Russian consumer.).

Suggested Citation

  • Angela Cheptea & Carl Gaigné, 2020. "Russian Food Embargo and the Lost Trade," Post-Print hal-02396256, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02396256
    DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbz032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Economic sanctions and agricultural trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(4), pages 1477-1517, August.
    2. Anne‐Célia Disdier & Carl Gaigné & Cristina Herghelegiu, 2023. "Do standards improve the quality of traded products?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1238-1290, November.
    3. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian, 2023. "Blowback: The effect of sanctions on democratic elections," Kiel Working Papers 2246, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Daria Loginova & Stefan Mann, 2022. "Institutional contributions to agricultural producer price stability," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Korhonen, I., 2019. "Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions - What Are their Economic Effects in Russia and Elsewhere?," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 184-190.
    6. Hayakawa,Kazunobu & Kumagai,Satoru, 2024. "Trade Effects of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict: Can Neutral Countries Really Fish in Troubled Waters?," IDE Discussion Papers 944, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    7. Wendkouni Jean‐Baptiste Zongo & Bruno Larue & Carl Gaigné, 2023. "On export duration puzzles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 453-478, March.
    8. Maximilian Koppenberg & Martina Bozzola & Tobias Dalhaus & Stefan Hirsch, 2021. "Mapping potential implications of temporary COVID‐19 export bans for the food supply in importing countries using precrisis trade flows," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 25-43, January.
    9. Jing Fu & Guangji Tong, 2024. "Status of Sino–Russian Trade in Agricultural Products: Dual Consideration Based on Characteristics and Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-20, January.
    10. Hayakawa,Kazunobu & Kumagai,Satoru, 2022. "The trade effect of economic sanctions: evidence from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict," IDE Discussion Papers 857, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    11. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Economic Sanctions and Agricultural Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 9410, CESifo.
    12. Shaosheng Jin & Baojie Ma & Yuqing Zheng & Xin Jin & Wenchao Wu, 2024. "Short‐term impact of food safety standards on agri‐product exports: Evidence from Japan's positive list system on Chinese vegetable exports," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 362-381, February.
    13. K. A. Morachevskaya & E. A. Lyzhina, 2021. "Are the Food Embargo and Import Substitution Changing Regional Production? A Case Study of Leningrad Oblast," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 502-512, October.
    14. Carl Gaigné & Karine Latouche & Stéphane Turolla, 2020. "Compétitivité internationale du secteur agroalimentaire français : c’est quoi le problème ?," Post-Print hal-03346304, HAL.
    15. Flach, Lisandra & Heiland, Inga & Larch, Mario & Steininger, Marina & Teti, Feodora A., 2023. "Quantifying the partial and general equilibrium effects of sanctions on Russia," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 302103, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Morad Bali & Thanh T. Nguyen & Lincoln F. Pratson, 2024. "Impacts of EU Sanctions Levied in 2014 on Individual European Countries' Exports to Russia: Winners and Losers," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 154-194, April.
    17. Iikka Korhonen, 2020. "Economic Sanctions on Russia and Their Effects," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(04), pages 19-22, January.
    18. Mathias Juust & Urmas Varblane, 2024. "Firm-Level Capabilities And Response To A Negative Export Shock: 2014 Russian Embargo On The West," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 145, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    19. Loginova, Daria, 2022. "Assessing the Short-term Effect of Exchange Rate Liberalisation on Food Import Prices: The Regression Discontinuity in Time Employed for Russian Food Markets in 2014," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 3(3), September.
    20. Vincent Chatellier, 2021. "Review: International trade in animal products and the place of the European Union: main trends over the last 20 years," Post-Print hal-03718326, HAL.
    21. Devadoss, Stephen & Ridley, William, 2024. "Impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global wheat market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    22. Daria Loginova & Judith Irek, 2022. "Russian meat price transmission and policy interventions in 2014," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    23. Korhonen, Iikka & Simola, Heli, 2024. "High-priority battlefield items and television sets: How sanctions reduced Russians' access to goods," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade; Russian embargo; trade diversion; intensive and extensive trade margins; revenu réel; Embargo Russe; réallocation du commerce; marges intensives et extensives; commerce international;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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